Texas’ 34th District got national attention earlier this year when 36 year old republican and political newcomer Mayra Flores landed an upset victory in a close special election in a heavily Hispanic border district. This district stretches along the Texas Mexico border but then goes up along the Gulf coast and approaches near Corpus Christi from the south. The district Flores won in the upset this summer is a little more favorable than the map she is running in now. The old district was a Biden +4 and the new district is a Biden +15.4 point advantage however there are seats with as much as a 20 point advantage to Biden where republicans are currently competitive. The non white population of TX 34 is an astonishing 92.1% with the vast majority of that population being Hispanic.

For the GOP the incumbent candidate is the very impressive Mayra Flores, who was born in Mexico and moved here as a little girl. She is from the area and has worked as a respiratory therapist. She has four kids with her husband who is a border patrol agent. She was previously a democrat until shortly after Obama became president when she switched parties because of her pro life views. She often mentions how she was raised to put God and Family first.

Flores speaks fluent Spanish and uses this advantage to take her message directly to the Hispanic cpmmunity. She notes how the democrats have taken for granted their heavy latino support over the years and that their extreme views are out of step with what they believe “ the district is pro family, pro life and Pro God.” She says Hispanics are conservative, but fall into neither far left or far right label.  She tries to focus on the kitchen table issues that effect voters most, like the economy, border security and family values.

She has been the subject of racist attacks and has also been accused of being a Q anon supporter after using their hashtags, but explains that she was merely trying to reach their voters in a social media post and does not agree with their views.  In interviews Flores does an excellent job speaking in a down to earth manner, and while she is conservative she doesn’t come off as an ideologue.  

Flores is facing another member of congress in this race Vincente Gonzalez who has been in office since 2017. The new district map does bring some of gonzalez’ old district with him, fully 200,000 residents currently have him as their congressman. Prior to being a congressman, Gonzalez was a lawyer (primarily a civil litigator) a fact Flores has attacked him on for “defending criminals” although Cong. Gonzalez notes that criminal defense was a very small part of his practice.

On the issues Gonzalez tries to sound moderate in tone, and on some issues does vote with the GOP such as in opposing an assault weapons ban. He is however for red flag laws to prohibit gun purchases for domestic violence abusers.  He talks about the border as a major issue but downplays it in a way that Flores certainly does not. When asked about potential environmental issues for Space X (who has a HQ in the district) he mentioned making sure the company was doing everything right but one could tell the hard left environmentalism that has infected so much of his party, at the very least he lacks the enthusiasm for.

As a congressman he notes bringing $6 billion back to the district as one of the things he is proudest of. On abortion he sounds like a democrat from the 1990s focusing on women being forced to carry a child conceived in rape and noting that it should be “safe, legal and rare.” According to the almanac of American Politics his social issue voting record is 100% liberal on economic issues he is more mixed. He has voted with Joe Biden 97.3% of the time.

On the financial side of this race, Flores and Gonzalez are at near parity in both the spend battle and the cash on hand battle. In terms of cash on hand Gonzalez has $820k in the bank to Mayra Flores’ $799k. In the spend battle Gonzalez has a slight edge since the beginning of the year spending $3.3 million to Flores’ $2.495 million.

This race has been rated as a tossup by Fox News, the Cook Political report and by Real Clear Politics. FiveThirtyEight gives Gonzalez the narrowest edge possible in their models of 51 of 100 to Flores 49 of 100. There has been one poll in the race from early August where Gonzales had a 4 point lead 47-43 but was well short of the 49 or 50 percent that would give him some protection against independents breaking for Flores. Hopefully Flores can pull off yet another upset win this year.

This race features one of the most Hispanic districts in the country, the seat is located in the central valley, is just south of another highly competitive district we have covered the 13th (John Duarte vs Adam Gray). The district features Bakersfield, Delano, Tulare and Kettleman City as the main population centers. The district is 76% Hispanic and has been represented by a Republican since 2013. This really speaks to the coalitional shift happening around the country of the Hispanic population moving towards the GOP. David Valadao the republican however only won very narrowly two years ago by just over 500 votes.

Valadao took an unlikely path to political office, he is by trade a dairy farmer and when he was elected to a regional leadership council for, Land O Lakes for whom he is a supplier it whetted his appetite. He noticed from that perch how important government policies are in how they effect our lives. From there he won election to the state assembly in 2010. From there he won a new seat in 2012 to the US House finishing first in an all-party primary with 57% of the vote. Winning comfortably after the redistricting that cycle 58-42.

Valadao notes how he works to educate the Hispanic community he represents on why gas prices are high and how bad democrat policies are driving inflation. The continual climate change anti fossil fuel message also hits a brick wall in this district where a major business is oil and gas production. Valadao notes a little known fact that California has the 5th most gas reserves of any state in the country. He also does a good job hitting the left on their bad prioritization for green energy, explaining that many companies are now avoiding the state because their electrical grid is so unreliable.

Valadao has a pro life record that the democrats are trying to hit him on. He also sets himself apart for the moderates in the district as being one of only several reprublicans to vote in favor of impeaching president Trump the second time.  Despite that he voted with Trump 96.8% of the time and has only voted with Biden 26% of the time. Valadao supports comprehensive immigration reform and broke with other republicans to oppose the dismantling of the DACA program. He also broke ranks to vote against cuts to the food stamp program in 2013. He has been rated the 42nd most bipartisan member of the house.

Rudy Salas is the democrat challenger in this race. He is a 45 year old state assemblyman from Bakersfield who grew up in rougher neighborhoods. He has been active in political lif most of his adulthood. Starting out working as a district director for a state senator, in 2010 he was the first latino elected to the Bakersfield city council. Since then he has served as assemblyman for 10 years. In that role he is proudest of getting funds for an emergency center in Kings county as well as funds for a nursing program.

In the state house he was the only democrat to vote against an increase to the gas tax. He also criticizes Newsom saying he could’ve done a better job on Covid. Salas also boasts that he has been endorsed twice by the NRA. On climate change Salas sounds less insane than his democrat colleagues on the issue. Overall Salas has a good demeanor seems likable, and has a decent depth and comes off as knowledgeable on the issues, he tries to point to things he has actually done rather than speaking in generalities like lesser candidates.

On the financial side of the race the republican incumbent here is winning both the spend battle and the cash on hand battle. On the spend side David Valadao has outspent his opponent $1.95 million to $1.678 million since the beginning of the year. On the cash on hand battle Rudy Salas has only $517k to Valadao’s sizable $1.436 million.

Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report and Fox News all list this race in their tossup column. Despite two polls from July and August having Salas up, FiveThirtyEight gives Valadao the edge in their statistical models with him winning in 58 out of 100 models.

This race was made possible by the horse trading that accompanies appointment to higher office… or abandonment of said office, all of which was kicked into motion by Governor Andrew Cuomo resigning.  Kathy Hochul became governor thus creating a vacancy at the Lt Gov spot, Congressman Antonio Delgado was plucked from his seat in congress and appointed to the vacancy. Thus another vacancy was created, that for his seat in congress, which was temporarily filled in the special election this August when Pat Ryan beat Marc Molinaro. That district will expire come January and the new lines of which bring us at last to this district and this race.

New York’s 18th Congressional district sits in the Hudson valley and borders both Connecticut and New Jersey, hugging both sides like a kind of hinge. The district comprises all of Orange County, most of Duchess County and around half of Ulster County. It features the oldest winery in America (dating from 1839) and was home to Hyde Park and its most famous resident 4 time presidential election champion Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Benedict Arnold betrayed George Washington in the district during the revolution and the site now houses the US Military Academy at West Point.  

The GOP challenger in this race is the fairly young Colin Schmitt who though only 32 years old has held elected office before serving as a State Rep since 2019. He also will have name recognition in the new district as he already represents Orange county in the legislature. Schmitt is also a Sgt in the Army National Guard and before serving in the state house was the chief of staff for a local community. Scmitt is also a real estate agent.

Shmitt despite his age talks as someone who has a fair bit of experience, and often can point to things he has already done on a given issue when questioned. He also has the refreshing habit of not sounding too canned or practiced in front of the camera, he talks like a regular guy.

He has the sense to hammer the kitchen table issues voters most care about, like inflation and the rising cost of groceries and gas, calling it a “spending driving inflation crisis” and led the fight to nrepeal the gas tax in NY. While he doesn’t talk about his pro life stance his voting record in the legislature would suggest he is pro life. He has been hammering te democrats on the disaster that is no cash bail in the state of New York. And he bucks his own party (but not its principles) in wanting to work to end the cap on the State and Local tax deduction that was put in place as part of the Trump Tax Cuts. He also stresses the need to give parents a say over their children’s curriculum.

The democrat incumbent (albeit of recent vintage) is Pat Ryan who won a special election this summer that garnered national attention as a referendum on Roe being overturned. Ryan is an impressive candidate who served two tours in Iraq, is a West Point graduate and served as a combat intelligence officer. More recently he served as Ulster County Executive, where he took constituent service fairly seriously. In his race against Marc Molinaro this summer, the two would often call one another on behalf of their constituents to help with one government agency or another in their purview as both were county executives in neighboring counties. Ryan has also worked in the software industry.

On the issues Ryan is strongly pro abortion and is already a member of the “pro choice caucus” as a congressman. He pushes the threat to democracy from the far right narrative as well. But he does do a good job stressing the kitchen table issues. He has also voiced his support for student loan debt forgiveness. When Ryan ran in August the abortion issue was so front and center that signs for the race had the banner “protect choice, Vote August 23rd” with Ryan’s name appearing smaller below it.

On the financial side of the race, as of the end of September cash on hand between Ryan and Schmitt is pretty near even, with Ryan having $553k in the bank to Schmitt’s $485k. The spend side of the equation is a little muddled because of the massive special election in which Schmitt didn’t participate so there you have a total Ryan spend of $3.391 million to Schmitt’s spend of $1.3 million. The total financial picture however shows a race with both candidates near parity with one another.

According to Politico, in the redraw the district has shifted slightly more democrat from a Biden +5.1 to a Biden +8.5.  Fox News and Real Clear Politics list this race in their tossup columns. The Cook Political Report has this seat in their “leans democrat” column. There has been no public polling so far in this race. FiveThirtyEight has Ryan winning in 71 of their models and Schmitt winning in 29 of 100.  

New York’s 3rd Congressional District confines itself to the northern shore of Long Island starting at the edge of New York City and jutting eastward taking in Oyster Bay and North Hempstead as well as dozens of other small and very small communities along the northern shore. Bill O’Reilly of Fox News fame has lived in the district, but its most famous resident is clearly none other than 26th President of the United States Theodore Roosevelt, whose home Sagamore Hill is in Oyster Bay.

The race itself features two openly gay men vying for the open seat, the republican George DeVolder Santos made light of the rarity of his own circumstance, “I’m a gay republican in New York State, I am probably a walking living breathing contradiction.” Santos has a great American story, and he is still fairly young, his family fled Jewish persecution in Ukraine to Belgium and then to Brazil, they escaped Brazil in the 1980s because of their socialist policies and finally made it to the United States. Santos call himself proof of the American dream he has led a successful finance career following in his mother’s footsteps. His mother had to flee the South Tower of the World Trade Center on 9/11 and was able to escape but, unfortunately died a few years later.

George Devolder-Santos is solidly conservative almost of the smash mouth variety in tone, he is pro cop, pro life and pro law and order. He has received the endorsement of local law enforcement. And he stresses the kitchen table issues of the economy. Santos seems to be a hard working candidate that brings a lot of passion to his politics. And he doesn’t spend much time talking about himself.

Robert Zimmerman is also gay but is more likely to tell you about it. Zimmerman’s background is a smorgasboard of insider appointments and jobs, he got his start working for two different congressmen and later helped a third, he then got into the communications business and is known in democrat circles as somewhat of a PR maven and an effective fundraiser. He got pretty high profile appointments from Democrat presidents, to the Kennedy Center board by Clinton and to the Council of the Humanities by Obama, he is also on the Board of the American Museum of Natural History.

But all these glittering prizes for Zimmerman flow from his involvement in Democrat politics across the decades, he is a longtime member of the DNC and touts his efforts in dismantling the superdelegate system. Ideologically he is solidly democrat with no daylight between himself and the party platform. When asked to describe himself he noted, “grass roots political activism defines who I am.”

He has attacked his opponent for his pro life stance, and smartly tries to stress popular issues like reinstating the State and Local Tax Deduction caps that went into place with the Trump tax cuts. Somewhat oddly on his website he talks about a two state solution for Israel which is kind of a fringe issue to put front and center, but he likes to think himself as someone who supports underdogs. Santos has attacked him as supporting polticians who coddle criminals, the issue of no cash bail has exploded in New York in the last year since they implemented the policy.  One shouldn’t underestimate Zimmerman however, he is pretty polished in all his appearances, and comes off fairly well in his demeanor which shouldn’t be surprising for someone who owns a PR shop.

On the financial side of the race, George Santos tried to run in 2020 for congress but was unsuccessful, getting outspent heavily at the time ($400k to $2.2 million) however he has been able to outspend his well connected opponent quite resoundingly since the beginning of the year $2.4 million to $1.63 million. The cash on hand battle is neck and neck though with Santos having $603k to Zimmerman’s $611k.

RealClear Politics and Fox News list this race as a tossup, the Cook Political Report has it in the “Leans Democrat” column. There has been only one public poll for this race (from early September) and it has Zimmerman up by only one point 42-41. Zimmerman is well below the 50% threshold so that could be a good sign for Santos.  

Nevada’s Third Congressional District takes in the south western side of the Las Vegas metro area then takes a jog westward as well as south along the state’s borders so the district shares a border with both Arizona and California. The district derives most of its population from The Vegas Metro area and takes in one of the largest Vegas suburbs of Spring Valley. It is home to a variety of athetes and entertainers from Carrot Top, to tennis stars Andre Agassi, Steffi Graf, NASCAR drivers Kurt and Kyle Busch and former Chicago Cub Kris Bryant. Parts of the beautiful Red Rock Canyon National Conservation Area are also in the district.

The GOP challenger in this race is April Becker who won an impressive primary victory getting 65% of the vote in a 4 way race she was endorsed by Kevin McCarthy and Nikki Haley. Becker is a lawyer by trade in Las Vegas and does pro bono legal work to those in need on the side. She does a good job focusing on kitchen table issues like inflation, gas prices and the price of food. She is also attacking her opponent for the bill that adds 87,000 new IRS agents. She does a good job breaking issues down and sounds like a normal person, she can however rely too heavily on the more Fox Newsy talking points.

She has been attacked for her pro life stance, which is to support life except in the cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother and to leave the issue up to the states. Nevada’s law currently is quite permissive allowing abortion up to 6 months.

Susie Lee is the democratic incumbent in this seat. She was like many of the other tossup seat reps, elected in the 2018 wave year for democrats. In 2020 she underperformed Biden by 10,000 votes. Like a lot of Nevadans she is originally from somewhere else, Canton, Ohio, and touts her humble beginnings there working a paper route as a kid and coming from a family that “didn’t have much but had enough.” Her (now former) husband is in the casino business as an executive and she was greatly helped being able to match or outspend her opponents.

She has done plenty to help those less fortunate founding an after school program, and a homeless shelter. She also has introduced legislation to limit class sizes.  Her family owns 17 homes (14 of which are rented) as well as a private plane. Unsurprisingly she has been labeled as out of touch.  

Lee studiously avoids being seen as liberal and avoids using talking points that might make her seem so. While her economic and social liberal voting records are more mixed (56% and 51% respectively) according to the almanac of American Politics, she has voted with Biden 100% of the time and has a 100% pro abortion rating from NARAL.

On the financial side of the race, Susie Lee has a sizable spend advantage from the first part of the year topping Becker $4.3 million to $1.38 million, her cash on hand advantage presently is much less formidable only topping Becker’s $603k with her own $1.2 million stack.

According to Politico the district itself has gotten slightly more pro-democrat in the redraw increasing from a Biden +0.2 district to a Biden + 6.7 district. However, Fox News, Real Clear Politics and the Cook Political Report all have this race listed in their tossup columns, there has been polling in this race but the most recent is from all the way back in July, but it had April Becker up by 3 points. Two other polls have been conducted even less recently one with Lee having a 2 point advantage and another with Becker up by 2.

One can call this race the battle of two UNLV professors, one the GOP challenger is a finance professor there, and the incumbent Dina Titus, was a member of the faculty in the political science department. Nevada’s 1st Congressional District used to be drawn tightly around the city of Las Vegas in the redraw it still takes in much of the city but juts out and south east to Henderson and Boulder taking in that splendid engineering and modern marvel of the 1930’s that FDR renamed to spite his predecessor but was eventually re-re-named again, the Hoover Dam. The district has been home to such notables as Harry Reid, originally of Searchlight, Heavyweight Champion Mike Tyson and who could forget Chumlee, one of the stars of Pawn Stars.

The GOP candidate to take on long term incumbent Dina Titus is an impressive one, Mark Roberson dedicated his life serving the United States in the Army, he has been deployed to 10 different countries including Iraq, Afghanistan and Kuwait. In an impressive feat he rose from Private to Colonel (the jump from enlisted to officer is a rarity). And closed out his career working for the Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon. Robertson has deep ties to the district and the area and teaches Finance at the University of Las Vegas Nevada (UNLV).

On the issues Robertson is impressive, he is well spoken and knowledgeable. On economic issues he understands incentives, which should come as no surprise with the finance background. He is in support of finishing the border wall. On life, he is unoquivically pro life (with the exception of rape, incest and the life of the mother), he applauds the Dobbs decision and cleverly brings up Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s reservations about Roe when defending his position.

Robertson stresses kitchen table issues such as inflation, crime, poor education, immigration and water rights, which are a bigger deal to Nevada than other states as they are suppliers of water to California and Arizona as well as some of Mexico, fully 20 million people make use of lake Mead’s water, this has become more of an issue in the last few years as the water levels in Lake Mead have been decreasing to its lowest levels since 1937 this past year.

Dina Titus has been somewhat of an institution in Vegas area politics for more than 30 years. She served as State Senator for 20 years from 1988 to 2008 served a term in congress before getting tossed in the 2010 GOP wave election and then clawed back again in 2012 and has held the seat uninterrupted since. Titus grew up around politics in Georgia her uncle was in the GA legislature and her father ran for city council.  Interestingly Titus was admitted to the College of William and Mary without a High School Diploma and eventually went on to get a doctorate from Florida State. She taught at UNLV for 34 years retiring in 2011 and wrote several books on Nevada history.

Despite her interesting background her politics doesn’t stray from liberal orthodoxy. She has a 100% liberal and economic voting record according to the 2022 Almanac of American Politics, and she has voted with Biden 100% of the time.  She is in favor of codifying Roe and is even open to expanding the supreme court, something so extreme only one or two other tossup seat democrats have voiced it. She calls conservative court victories “against the arc of history” echoing an Obama line. She is also in favor of gun restrictions, and shares the disposition of her former Senator Harry Reid in wanting to junk the filibuster.

In congress she has pushed for consumer protection bills that limit what credit card companies can charge, restricting them from charging excessively high interest rates. She seems to have a passion for animals and has introduced bills to rescue pets in cases of natural disasters and talks about dealing with the Bureau of Land Management and ethical treatment of horses in their wild horse roundups.

On the financial side of the race, republican Mark Robertson is behind, but has kept within range so far this year. In the spend battle Robertson has spent $780k to Dina Titus’ $1.97 million. The cash on hand battle is a little worse with Titus holding $968k in the bank to Robertson’s $295k. Hopefully outside forces come to prop up Robertson in the final weeks.

This race is listed in the Tossup columns on Fox News power rankings, as a tossup on the Cook Political report and as a tossup on Real Clear Politics. According to Politico the party makeup of the district has shifted drastically since the democratic run redraw, with the district dropping from a Biden +25.6 district to a Biden +8.7. There has only been one poll in the race from July and it has Titus up 4 points, 41-37.  

In this race we feature two candidates who look quite young, (only one who actually is), and a tale of two families in the ice cream business. The district is only one of two in New Hampshire and features the eastern part of the state taking in Dover along the Atlantic Seaboard and Manchester a little further inland. The district is oddly a hive of comedic talent for Saturday Night Live giving us Seth Meyers, Sarah Silverman and Adam Sandler all of whom hailed from Manchester. The district also boasts the longest lived nun of all time, one Marie Josephine Gaudette who lived from 1902 – 2017.

The republican in this race despite her young age of only 24 years has been active in GOP politics and policy for quite some time. Karoline Leavitt worked in the Trump White House, helping Kayleigh McEnneny prepare for her briefings as press secretary. Since working in the White House Karoline has also worked as communications director for GOP rep Elise Stefanik. Leavitt was born and raised in New Hampshire, is the first in her family to attend college and the first to run for elected office. Her parents own a truck dealership and operate an ice cream stand as well.

In terms of ideology Leavitt seems unabashedly conservative, is Pro Small business and wants to stip away regulations that inhibit growth. In an interview she was quick to reject the premise that America is systemically racist. However she wants to bring more economic opportunity to those in the inner cities. She is in favor of re-instilling a love of country and notes that no one is born racist it is something that is taught. Leavitt is also strongly pro life and supported the overturning of Roe.

The democrat incumbent in this race has held elected office since his opponent was 4 years old. Chris Pappas hails from a family of long standing in New Hampshire, while his forebears also founded an ice cream shop, they have been in the restaurant business for more than a century owning the famous Manchester spot, the Puritan Backroom. Pappas went to Harvard then went on to serve in  elected office from the legislature to the New Hampshire Executive council with very few interruptions in the last 20 years. He was elected to congress in the wave year of 2018 and beat Bernie Sanders son in the primary.

Ideologically Pappas is fairly solidly democrat but there are a few issue exceptions that make him stand out. He has however voted with Biden 100% of the time and has a 100% economic liberal voting record. He is pro abortion and wants to codify Roe calling abortion a “private personal decision.” He dodged a question he was asked about abortion until birth and the extreme position which is liberal orthodoxy.

On drugs he departs from his party a little voting against marijuana legalization. And he highlights the drug crisis. He is also in favor of securing the border and reforming immigration. He pushes more popular talking points as well like banning members of congress from trading stocks. And he does call out Biden for being late to the bus on inflation. He is fairly knowledgeable and has some depth on issues.  In a departure from Leavitt who calls New Hampshire routinely the “live free or die state” Pappas will refer to it as the “granite state.”

On the financial side of the race the spend battle has been fairly close, with Karoline Leavitt closely trailing Pappas $1.9 million to $2.27 million. In cash on hand Pappas has more of an advantage leading $2.215 million to $606k. Hopefully Leavitt can keep to parity in the final weeks.

 The Cook political report, Fox News and Real Clear Politics all have this race listed as a tossup. The remap only changed the party breakdown very little but in the GOP’s favor going from a Biden +6.1 to a Biden +5.7 district. The latest poll has this as a 1 point race with Pappas up 48-47 previous polls have given Pappas more of an edge as much as 8 points, but none have given him more than 50% which is a good sign for Leavitt.