In this race we feature two candidates who look quite young, (only one who actually is), and a tale of two families in the ice cream business. The district is only one of two in New Hampshire and features the eastern part of the state taking in Dover along the Atlantic Seaboard and Manchester a little further inland. The district is oddly a hive of comedic talent for Saturday Night Live giving us Seth Meyers, Sarah Silverman and Adam Sandler all of whom hailed from Manchester. The district also boasts the longest lived nun of all time, one Marie Josephine Gaudette who lived from 1902 – 2017.

The republican in this race despite her young age of only 24 years has been active in GOP politics and policy for quite some time. Karoline Leavitt worked in the Trump White House, helping Kayleigh McEnneny prepare for her briefings as press secretary. Since working in the White House Karoline has also worked as communications director for GOP rep Elise Stefanik. Leavitt was born and raised in New Hampshire, is the first in her family to attend college and the first to run for elected office. Her parents own a truck dealership and operate an ice cream stand as well.

In terms of ideology Leavitt seems unabashedly conservative, is Pro Small business and wants to stip away regulations that inhibit growth. In an interview she was quick to reject the premise that America is systemically racist. However she wants to bring more economic opportunity to those in the inner cities. She is in favor of re-instilling a love of country and notes that no one is born racist it is something that is taught. Leavitt is also strongly pro life and supported the overturning of Roe.

The democrat incumbent in this race has held elected office since his opponent was 4 years old. Chris Pappas hails from a family of long standing in New Hampshire, while his forebears also founded an ice cream shop, they have been in the restaurant business for more than a century owning the famous Manchester spot, the Puritan Backroom. Pappas went to Harvard then went on to serve in  elected office from the legislature to the New Hampshire Executive council with very few interruptions in the last 20 years. He was elected to congress in the wave year of 2018 and beat Bernie Sanders son in the primary.

Ideologically Pappas is fairly solidly democrat but there are a few issue exceptions that make him stand out. He has however voted with Biden 100% of the time and has a 100% economic liberal voting record. He is pro abortion and wants to codify Roe calling abortion a “private personal decision.” He dodged a question he was asked about abortion until birth and the extreme position which is liberal orthodoxy.

On drugs he departs from his party a little voting against marijuana legalization. And he highlights the drug crisis. He is also in favor of securing the border and reforming immigration. He pushes more popular talking points as well like banning members of congress from trading stocks. And he does call out Biden for being late to the bus on inflation. He is fairly knowledgeable and has some depth on issues.  In a departure from Leavitt who calls New Hampshire routinely the “live free or die state” Pappas will refer to it as the “granite state.”

On the financial side of the race the spend battle has been fairly close, with Karoline Leavitt closely trailing Pappas $1.9 million to $2.27 million. In cash on hand Pappas has more of an advantage leading $2.215 million to $606k. Hopefully Leavitt can keep to parity in the final weeks.

 The Cook political report, Fox News and Real Clear Politics all have this race listed as a tossup. The remap only changed the party breakdown very little but in the GOP’s favor going from a Biden +6.1 to a Biden +5.7 district. The latest poll has this as a 1 point race with Pappas up 48-47 previous polls have given Pappas more of an edge as much as 8 points, but none have given him more than 50% which is a good sign for Leavitt.