This race was made possible by the horse trading that accompanies appointment to higher office… or abandonment of said office, all of which was kicked into motion by Governor Andrew Cuomo resigning.  Kathy Hochul became governor thus creating a vacancy at the Lt Gov spot, Congressman Antonio Delgado was plucked from his seat in congress and appointed to the vacancy. Thus another vacancy was created, that for his seat in congress, which was temporarily filled in the special election this August when Pat Ryan beat Marc Molinaro. That district will expire come January and the new lines of which bring us at last to this district and this race.

New York’s 18th Congressional district sits in the Hudson valley and borders both Connecticut and New Jersey, hugging both sides like a kind of hinge. The district comprises all of Orange County, most of Duchess County and around half of Ulster County. It features the oldest winery in America (dating from 1839) and was home to Hyde Park and its most famous resident 4 time presidential election champion Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Benedict Arnold betrayed George Washington in the district during the revolution and the site now houses the US Military Academy at West Point.  

The GOP challenger in this race is the fairly young Colin Schmitt who though only 32 years old has held elected office before serving as a State Rep since 2019. He also will have name recognition in the new district as he already represents Orange county in the legislature. Schmitt is also a Sgt in the Army National Guard and before serving in the state house was the chief of staff for a local community. Scmitt is also a real estate agent.

Shmitt despite his age talks as someone who has a fair bit of experience, and often can point to things he has already done on a given issue when questioned. He also has the refreshing habit of not sounding too canned or practiced in front of the camera, he talks like a regular guy.

He has the sense to hammer the kitchen table issues voters most care about, like inflation and the rising cost of groceries and gas, calling it a “spending driving inflation crisis” and led the fight to nrepeal the gas tax in NY. While he doesn’t talk about his pro life stance his voting record in the legislature would suggest he is pro life. He has been hammering te democrats on the disaster that is no cash bail in the state of New York. And he bucks his own party (but not its principles) in wanting to work to end the cap on the State and Local tax deduction that was put in place as part of the Trump Tax Cuts. He also stresses the need to give parents a say over their children’s curriculum.

The democrat incumbent (albeit of recent vintage) is Pat Ryan who won a special election this summer that garnered national attention as a referendum on Roe being overturned. Ryan is an impressive candidate who served two tours in Iraq, is a West Point graduate and served as a combat intelligence officer. More recently he served as Ulster County Executive, where he took constituent service fairly seriously. In his race against Marc Molinaro this summer, the two would often call one another on behalf of their constituents to help with one government agency or another in their purview as both were county executives in neighboring counties. Ryan has also worked in the software industry.

On the issues Ryan is strongly pro abortion and is already a member of the “pro choice caucus” as a congressman. He pushes the threat to democracy from the far right narrative as well. But he does do a good job stressing the kitchen table issues. He has also voiced his support for student loan debt forgiveness. When Ryan ran in August the abortion issue was so front and center that signs for the race had the banner “protect choice, Vote August 23rd” with Ryan’s name appearing smaller below it.

On the financial side of the race, as of the end of September cash on hand between Ryan and Schmitt is pretty near even, with Ryan having $553k in the bank to Schmitt’s $485k. The spend side of the equation is a little muddled because of the massive special election in which Schmitt didn’t participate so there you have a total Ryan spend of $3.391 million to Schmitt’s spend of $1.3 million. The total financial picture however shows a race with both candidates near parity with one another.

According to Politico, in the redraw the district has shifted slightly more democrat from a Biden +5.1 to a Biden +8.5.  Fox News and Real Clear Politics list this race in their tossup columns. The Cook Political Report has this seat in their “leans democrat” column. There has been no public polling so far in this race. FiveThirtyEight has Ryan winning in 71 of their models and Schmitt winning in 29 of 100.