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In this episode of Skeptic’s Guide to Investing, Steve Davenport and Clem Miller discuss what investors should be tracking as the Second Trump Administration gets underway.

Will increased energy output be addressed on Day 1? Will these policies support not just increased oil drilling but also natural gas exports and nuclear?

Will the Administration and Congress get so side-tracked by social issues and retribution against perceived enemies that it will be unable to form a bipartisan consensus to extend the 2017 tax cuts?

Will proposals by Elon Musk and his so-called DOGE to drastically slash government spending, including entitlements, be stymied by Trump’s own allies in Congress? Is DOGE just another distraction? When will Trump dump Musk?

Will there be any efforts made to build out the infrastructure needed to keep U.S. industries competitive with those of other countries?

Will Trump’s cabinet and agency nominees demonstrate the competence necessary to manage government functions effectively?

Steve and Clem also discuss and debate the weak long-term return projections of several prominent investment management firms. These projections are lower than would be implied by long-term U.S. nominal economic growth trends, but do they embed an expectation of recession? Do they reflect a substantial multiple contraction?

Finally, we discuss how we’re positions our portfolios for the opportunities and uncertainties posed by Trump 2.0.

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In this episode of Skeptic’s Guide to Investing, Clem Miller and Steve Davenport discuss how the incoming Trump Administration’s threats to impose very high tariffs, expel millions of undocumented immigrants, and reshape U.S. alliances to favor authoritarian regimes (coupled with the Fed’s strong dollar policy) are causing global shockwaves. We discuss the precarious position of Trudeau’s government in Canada and the prospect of U.S. military intervention in northern Mexico to address migration and drug crimes. We discuss shifts within multi-party coalitions in Germany, potential EU direct military involvement in Ukraine should the U.S. reduce support, and Russia’s covert efforts to destabilize EU governments. We discuss the attempted self-coup in South Korea, as well as the political and economic situations in Brazil and China. Finally, Steve and Clem share their thoughts on U.S. investors should consider these developments with respect to their stock selection and portfolio positioning.

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What if you could make trading decisions without emotion clouding your judgment? Join us as we sit down with Adrian Reid from Enlightened Stock Trader, who reveals the secret ingredients for trading success in 2025. Adrian's unique approach focuses on systematic strategies that prioritize models over market noise, incorporating factors like momentum, size, and volatility. Learn how he strategically excludes European markets to focus on regions with the best potential edge and expectancy, navigating through the complexities of markets in the US, Canada, Hong Kong, and Australia.

Delve into the intricacies of trading strategies and risk assessment with Adrian, as he shares insights into using short interest as a quant factor and the distinction between alpha and beta for informed investment decisions. Discover the potential of mean reversion and trend-following strategies to capitalize on stock-specific behavior rather than broader market movements. We also discuss the importance of preparing for potential downturns, ensuring that your portfolio is robust enough to endure market fluctuations.

Explore the art of portfolio diversification and market allocation as Adrian emphasizes the importance of liquidity and maintaining insignificant trades to prevent market influence. Gain insights into strategic diversification across different markets, considering factors like liquidity, spreads, and tax implications. With robust backtesting and a diversified approach, Adrian aims to ensure consistent success, navigating market volatility while mitigating risks. Tune in for a wealth of expert insights that could transform your trading journey.

For more information on Adrian Reid:

https://enlightenedstocktrading.com/free/

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Clem Miller and Steve Davenport discuss President-Elect Trump’s transactional approach to resolving thorny international conflicts, such as with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in the Middle East conflict, or with China-Taiwan.

Will Trump abandon or downgrade long-standing relationships with NATO or other allies as he makes foreign policy deals?

Is Trump likely to be successful in bringing regional adversaries like Russia and Ukraine, or Israel and Iran, to the negotiating table? If there are agreements reached, what is the likelihood they will stick?

Should we look at proposed U.S. tariffs on Chinese products as an economic issue or as more of a tool for gaining foreign policy leverage on the Taiwan issue? Will China ever promise to refrain from attacking Taiwan?

Will the U.S. be drawn into conflict with Russia or North Korea through increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory or North Korean troops?

We discuss these and more foreign policy issues as Inauguration Day approaches.

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Steve Davenport and Clem Miller discuss President-Elect Trump’s domestic agenda: deportations, tariffs, taxes, and energy. Will Trump have a durable Congressional majority to enact his policies? What can he do by Executive Order? Will he squander too much political capital on distractions or retribution? Even if his policies are enacted, what would be their true economic impact? Won’t deportations of employed immigrants, and broad-based tariffs lead to recession and higher inflation? What are our investment takeaways?

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Surprised by the recent election results? You're not alone. Despite widespread economic discontent, Trump's resounding victory over Kamala Harris left many, including us, scratching our heads. Join Clem Miller and me, Steve Davenport, as we unpack the implications of this political shift and explore how the economy, especially inflation, played a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment. We dive into the cyclical nature of political power and discuss the public's lofty expectations for falling prices, posing significant challenges for Trump's administration. We'll also look into how key figures like Elon Musk could influence the effectiveness of Trump's governance and what this means for investors navigating these turbulent market reactions.

With political turbulence on the horizon, we analyze potential resistance efforts and the role of checks and balances in maintaining a stable government. Surprising voter demographics, particularly among white men and women, point to a complex tapestry of issues ranging from economics to trust in government, and we explore how Democratic states might push back against federal policies. Our conversation is more than just analysis; it's about preparing you for the future. We conclude with our commitment to enhancing audience engagement, inviting you to suggest interviewees and topics that could sharpen your investment strategies. Your insights are valuable, and we can't wait to hear from you!

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How do Europe’s strict regulations ripple through Silicon Valley? Join us on Skeptic's Guide to Investing as Steve Davenport and Clem Miller unpack the labyrinth of European regulations reshaping the landscape for US tech behemoths. Discover how the Digital Markets Act is poised to level the playing field, forcing giants like Alphabet, Apple, and Meta to reassess their global strategies. Learn about the daunting hurdles posed by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and its wide-reaching implications for data privacy and global data transfers, leaving US companies scrambling to comply.

But that's not all—our conversation takes a sharp turn towards artificial intelligence. Explore the "Brussels effect" and how EU regulations are casting a global shadow over AI practices, compelling tech innovators to adapt in uncertain terrain. We also dissect the competitive dynamics among tech titans like Apple, Microsoft, and Google, and the geopolitical chess game of chip manufacturing. With a keen eye on innovation, we highlight the challenges and opportunities these tech giants face amidst increasing regulatory scrutiny. Don't miss as we also address the pressing need for transparency in AI-generated content on social media, and what this means for the future of digital interactions.

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In today’s episode, Steve and Clem discuss (and debate) the idea of replacing a portion of your bond holdings with a satellite portfolio of assets that that may offer a superior combination of yield and inflation resistance.

We consider the fact that inflation, while moderating significantly, is far from conquered. We also wonder if Fed rate cuts might actually prompt a return to higher inflation. Last, we wonder if we’re overdue for a sizable equities correction, especially among those AI and pharma stocks that have had a good run.

For this inflation-proofing satellite portfolio, we look at REITs, utilities, and natural resource equities, including energy, mining, and agriculture.

All of these assets have advantages with respect to yield and inflation resistance, but whether they offer total returns superior to those of general equities is open to question.

Steve and I welcome you to share your insights and continue the conversation.

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