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In this episode of Skeptic’s Guide to Investing, Steve Davenport and Clem Miller discuss what investors should be tracking as the Second Trump Administration gets underway.

Will increased energy output be addressed on Day 1? Will these policies support not just increased oil drilling but also natural gas exports and nuclear?

Will the Administration and Congress get so side-tracked by social issues and retribution against perceived enemies that it will be unable to form a bipartisan consensus to extend the 2017 tax cuts?

Will proposals by Elon Musk and his so-called DOGE to drastically slash government spending, including entitlements, be stymied by Trump’s own allies in Congress? Is DOGE just another distraction? When will Trump dump Musk?

Will there be any efforts made to build out the infrastructure needed to keep U.S. industries competitive with those of other countries?

Will Trump’s cabinet and agency nominees demonstrate the competence necessary to manage government functions effectively?

Steve and Clem also discuss and debate the weak long-term return projections of several prominent investment management firms. These projections are lower than would be implied by long-term U.S. nominal economic growth trends, but do they embed an expectation of recession? Do they reflect a substantial multiple contraction?

Finally, we discuss how we’re positions our portfolios for the opportunities and uncertainties posed by Trump 2.0.

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In this episode of Skeptic’s Guide to Investing, Clem Miller and Steve Davenport discuss how the incoming Trump Administration’s threats to impose very high tariffs, expel millions of undocumented immigrants, and reshape U.S. alliances to favor authoritarian regimes (coupled with the Fed’s strong dollar policy) are causing global shockwaves. We discuss the precarious position of Trudeau’s government in Canada and the prospect of U.S. military intervention in northern Mexico to address migration and drug crimes. We discuss shifts within multi-party coalitions in Germany, potential EU direct military involvement in Ukraine should the U.S. reduce support, and Russia’s covert efforts to destabilize EU governments. We discuss the attempted self-coup in South Korea, as well as the political and economic situations in Brazil and China. Finally, Steve and Clem share their thoughts on U.S. investors should consider these developments with respect to their stock selection and portfolio positioning.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None


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What if you could make trading decisions without emotion clouding your judgment? Join us as we sit down with Adrian Reid from Enlightened Stock Trader, who reveals the secret ingredients for trading success in 2025. Adrian's unique approach focuses on systematic strategies that prioritize models over market noise, incorporating factors like momentum, size, and volatility. Learn how he strategically excludes European markets to focus on regions with the best potential edge and expectancy, navigating through the complexities of markets in the US, Canada, Hong Kong, and Australia.

Delve into the intricacies of trading strategies and risk assessment with Adrian, as he shares insights into using short interest as a quant factor and the distinction between alpha and beta for informed investment decisions. Discover the potential of mean reversion and trend-following strategies to capitalize on stock-specific behavior rather than broader market movements. We also discuss the importance of preparing for potential downturns, ensuring that your portfolio is robust enough to endure market fluctuations.

Explore the art of portfolio diversification and market allocation as Adrian emphasizes the importance of liquidity and maintaining insignificant trades to prevent market influence. Gain insights into strategic diversification across different markets, considering factors like liquidity, spreads, and tax implications. With robust backtesting and a diversified approach, Adrian aims to ensure consistent success, navigating market volatility while mitigating risks. Tune in for a wealth of expert insights that could transform your trading journey.

For more information on Adrian Reid:

https://enlightenedstocktrading.com/free/

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None


Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com