2024:

• NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot Release (Montana): On September 26, 2024, NOAA releases the NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot data for the state of Montana. This pilot aims to collect early feedback and demonstrate the nature of Atlas 15 data. It covers a subset of storm durations (1 hour to 10 days) and exceedance probabilities (50% to 1%) in two volumes and is intended for comparison and feedback, not formal peer review.
• Public Review Period for NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot (Montana) Closes: The public review period for the NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot over Montana is closed, with feedback informing the expansion of the Pilot.
• Ed Clark's Retirement: Ed Clark, former director of the National Water Center, retires at the end of April.

Spring 2025:

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Orders Review: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick orders a review of NOAA Atlas 15 Volume 2, which focuses on climate projections, indefinitely suspending work on this crucial component.

July 16, 2025:

• Washington Post Article Published: The Washington Post publishes an exclusive article detailing the suspension of work on NOAA Atlas 15 Volume 2 by the Trump administration.
• Recent Flood Events: In the first 15 days of July, the National Weather Service reports twice the usual number of flash floods, including a deluge in Central Texas (130+ fatalities) and heavy rains in the Northeast (2 fatalities in New Jersey, submerged NYC subway stations).

2025:

• Preliminary CONUS Estimates for NOAA Atlas 15: Preliminary estimates for NOAA Atlas 15, covering the contiguous U.S. (lower 48 states), are scheduled to be released for public peer review and feedback.
• NOAA Atlas 15 Volume 1 (historical observations) Data Public Release (on track): Preliminary data for Volume 1, based on historical observations, is still on track to be made public by the end of this year.

April 2025 (Publication Date):

• "Validating the IMERG remote sensing precipitation data for extremes analysis using the new hybrid depth duration frequency model" Study Published: This study, authored by Kenneth Okechukwu Ekpetere, is published in Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, Volume 38.

A persistent "cold blob" in the subpolar North Atlantic, south of Greenland, has defied global warming trends for over a century, cooling by up to 0.3 degrees Celsius while surrounding waters warm. Recent research confirms this anomaly is primarily driven by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a vital system of ocean currents that regulates global climate. The slowdown is attributed to freshwater influx from melting Greenland ice, reducing water density and heat transport. Critically, new research suggests that an "Atlantification" process in the Arctic, specifically the Barents Sea, is creating a "back-up system" for dense water formation, potentially adding resilience to the AMOC and making a full collapse less likely than previously feared.

The devastating flash floods that swept through the Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, resulted in over 111 confirmed deaths and more than 170 missing persons, primarily in Kerr County. This disaster has brought to light critical failures in emergency warning systems, long-standing debates over funding for such infrastructure, and a significant political reluctance to accept accountability. While some areas like Comfort successfully utilized siren systems to prevent casualties, Kerr County, despite being in "Flash Flood Alley" and having a history of deadly floods, lacked effective public warning infrastructure due to cost concerns and political inaction. The incident has sparked a contentious debate over budget cuts to weather forecasting agencies and the overall approach to disaster preparedness in Texas.

• High Death Toll: As of July 8, 2025, at least 111 people were confirmed dead, with over 170 still missing, predominantly in Kerr County. "Of those, 75 were in Kerr County," and as of Monday morning, July 7, the number had risen to "at least 90 people had died in the flooding." (The Texas Tribune)
• Youth Casualties: A tragic aspect of the disaster is the high number of child victims, with at least 30 children among the dead in Kerr County. "The victims include many from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls, where 27 campers and staff members were killed." (Texas Floods: Accountability and Aftermath)
• Rapid Onset: The floodwaters rose with extreme speed, particularly in Kerrville, where the Guadalupe River rose "from 1 to more than 34 feet in height" between 2 a.m. and 7 a.m. on Friday. (The Texas Tribune) Some residents reported the water rising "10 feet beyond its banks" in an hour. (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't)

Inadequate Warning Systems in Kerr County

• Lack of Sirens: Unlike the nearby town of Comfort, which successfully used a "wailing warning siren" system and reported no deaths, Kerr County lacked a siren system despite years of debate. (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't) Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly stated, "Kerr County does not have a warning system in place along the river." (Timeline: When the warnings began)
• Previous Debates and Cost Concerns: Discussions about implementing a flood warning system in Kerr County date back to at least 2016, following a deadly flood in Hays County in 2015. Proposals for systems costing around $1 million were rejected as "too expensive." (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't; Officials Feared Flood Risk) "Taxpayers won’t pay for it," said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly. (Officials Feared Flood Risk)
• Reliance on Cell Phone Alerts: Kerr County relied on Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) sent to cell phones. However, these alerts were often ineffective due to "spotty cellphone service," phones being off, or individuals being asleep. "The girls at the summer camp weren’t allowed to bring them [cell phones]." (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't) Many residents also became "desensitized to too many weather warnings." (Timeline: When the warnings began)
• Failed Legislation: House Bill 13, which aimed to establish a statewide plan for improving disaster response, including a grant program for emergency communication equipment and new infrastructure like radio towers, "failed in the Texas Senate." (The Texas Tribune) This bill's initial "$500 million cost drew heavy criticism from fellow Republicans." (The Texas Tribune)

Devastating flash floods, fueled by extraordinary rainfall, struck the Texas Hill Country on July 4-5, 2025, resulting in at least 37 confirmed deaths, including 14 children with many people still missing. The floods caused widespread destruction, particularly around the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, and prompted a massive search and rescue operation. A central point of contention has emerged regarding the adequacy of weather forecasts and public warnings, with state and local officials criticizing the National Weather Service (NWS) for a "botched forecast" particularly by the Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief W. Tim Kidd and a perceived lack of urgency, while the NWS defends its actions amidst ongoing staffing and funding concerns. The event highlights the extreme vulnerability of the "flash flood alley" region and raises questions about preparedness for increasingly intense weather events in a warming climate

Key Facts and Figures

• Fatalities: At least 37 people confirmed dead across Texas, including 14 children.
• 32 deaths recovered in Kerr County (18 adults, 14 children).
• At least 3 deaths in Travis County.
• 2 deaths in Burnet County (including a firefighter).
• Missing Persons: As of July 5, 2025, authorities had not released a definitive number of missing beyond "more than two dozen children" from Camp Mystic and "many others." Some reports cited around 25 missing girls from Camp Mystic.
• Impacted Area: Primarily the Texas Hill Country, especially Kerr County, Ingram, and areas along the Guadalupe River. Austin and San Antonio regions also experienced heavy rains.
• Rainfall Amounts:Widespread 10-15 total inches in Kerr County late Thursday into Friday morning.
• Localized LCRA rainfall totals exceeded 18 inches in some places.
• One rain gauge in Mason County reported over 18 inches within 24 hours.
• "Four months of rainfall came down in only four hours" in some areas.
• Estimates of "more than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain fell in the Texas Hill Country over a span of several hours early Friday."
• Approximately "1.8 trillion gallons of rain fell over Texas Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau on Friday morning."
• River Levels: The Guadalupe River in Kerrville rose over 30 feet in less than two hours early Friday. In Hunt, it surged from seven feet to 29 feet in only a few hours—its second-greatest height on record.
• Time of Flood: The raging storm hit Camp Mystic "just after midnight Friday," catching many residents, campers, and officials by surprise.
• Rescues: Approximately 850 people had been rescued by July 5.
• Camps Affected: Camp Mystic (Christian summer camp), where most of the dead were recovered, and another camp "just up the road."

Federal Funding and Staffing Concerns at NWS: Underlying the criticism of NWS forecasts are concerns about federal budget cuts and staffing shortages impacting the agency's capabilities.

• The warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) position at the local NWS office (critical for outreach and training) has been vacant since April due to an early retirement package.
• Five other vacancies exist in the local NWS office (another management role, two meteorologists, a hydrologist, and an electronic technician).
• All five living directors of the NWS warned in May that Trump's cuts "leave the nation’s official weather forecasting entity at a significant deficit...Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life."

Critical Hurricane Forecast and Sea Ice Monitoring Tool Abruptly Terminated

Date: June 26, 2025

• Abrupt Termination: The DoD will permanently terminate the processing and transmission of microwave data from its three weather satellites by no later than June 30, 2025. This decision was formalized on June 25, 2025, and communicated to users, including NOAA and the National Hurricane Center, on June 24 and 25, 2025, respectively.
• Severe Impact on Hurricane Forecasts: The discontinuation of SSMIS data will "severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond," affecting millions of Americans in hurricane-prone regions. This data is critical for understanding storm structure, estimating intensity, and accurately positioning storm centers, particularly when direct observations are scarce.
• Increased Risk of "Sunrise Surprise": Without SSMIS microwave data, forecasters face an "increased risk of a ‘sunrise surprise,’ the realization from first-light images that a system had become much better organized overnight, but it wasn’t recognized because structural details are so hard to discern from [infrared satellite]."
• Impact on Sea Ice Products: The SSMIS data is also essential for several sea ice products, including the "Near-Real-Time NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration" and the "Sea Ice Index." These products will cease processing after June 30, 2025, leading to a "gap in data availability."
• Rationale Unclear, Security Concerns Suspected: While the exact rationale for the abrupt termination is "not immediately clear," the decision "appears to have stemmed from Department of Defense security concerns."
• Alternative Data Sources Being Explored/Recommended (with caveats):AMSR2: For sea ice products, the AMSR2 instrument is recommended as an alternative, noting it has "better resolution than SSMIS and therefore provides more detailed information." However, AMSR2 data are "prototype and not yet fully intercalibrated with older data," which means "users will notice differences in sea ice extents."
• WSF-M: The DoD successfully launched a follow-on weather satellite, Weather System Follow-on Microwave (WSF-M), in April 2024. However, data from WSF-M is "not currently available to forecasters and it’s not clear if or when data access will be permitted."
• SSMIS Data Proven Critical for Model Simulation: A 2003 study on Hurricane Danny demonstrated that assimilating SSM/I (predecessor to SSMIS) data significantly improved hurricane simulations by "increas[ing] the moisture content over most of the Gulf of Mexico, but also strengthen[ing] the low-level cyclonic circulation, giving a better convergence field and reduced model spin-up time."

The Empathizing-Systemizing (E-S) Theory and its Relevance

The E-S theory is a central framework discussed in both sources, hypothesizing that individuals possess varying degrees of "empathizing" and "systemizing" cognitive styles.

• Systemizing: Defined as "(1) the drive to create and analyze psychological sets of logical rules, or “systems,” related to and constructed around things that occur in the world, and (2) the ability to intuit how systems work in the physical world." (Bolton et al., 2018). It involves identifying "lawful regularities in physical and other systems" and understanding cause-and-effect relationships ("if I do X, A changes to B. If Z occurs, P changes to Q"). There are six main types of systems: abstract, mechanical, natural, collectible, motoric, and social.
• Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC): Individuals with ASC are hypothesized to be "inherently stronger at “systemizing” than they are empathizing" (Bolton et al., 2018). This manifests as a natural drive to "seek truth—a concept defined here as 'precise, reliable, consistent, or lawful patterns or structure in [some kind of] data' through psychological system-building." (Bolton et al., 2018). The concept of "hyper-systemizing" attempts to explain repetitive behaviors and a disinterest in socializing often observed in ASC, as "the social world, driven by emotions, is far less lawful than domains that include spinning objects or record keeping." (Bolton et al., 2018).

II. Psychological Profile of Meteorologists

The Bolton et al. (2018) study provides the first examination of meteorologists' personality and mental health relative to other physical scientists (engineers and physicists).

• Empathizing and Systemizing: Meteorologists in the study sample were found to be "higher in empathizing and systemizing" compared to engineers and physicists. While they were "the strongest systemizers" when compared to the combined group, they also showed the "highest group tendency for empathic expression." (Bolton et al., 2018). This suggests a unique "balancing of the E-S cognitive profiles within meteorologists," which is sensible given the profession's "orientation toward public service." (Bolton et al., 2018).
• Autistic Traits: Engineers and physicists reported "significantly higher autistic trait amounts" than meteorologists. Meteorologists scored comparably on the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) to other STEM groups in previous research, but were lower than the engineers and physicists in this specific sample.

III. Weather Salience in Autism Spectrum Conditions

Bolton et al. (2020) introduce and explore the concept of "weather salience" in autistic individuals.

• Definition of Weather Salience: "the degree to which individuals attribute psychological value or importance to the weather and the extent to which they are attuned to their atmospheric environments" (Stewart 2009, quoted in Bolton et al., 2020).
• Key Findings:Increased Weather Salience in Autism: Initial findings suggest that "enhanced weather salience exists among autistic individuals relative to those without the condition" (Bolton et al., 2020). While statistically non-significant in most studies, autistic participants consistently showed higher weather salience scores.

Meteorology Matters discusses a study indicating that human influence on global climate, specifically stratospheric cooling, could have been detected as early as 1885, preceding the widespread use of automobiles. Researchers conducted an experiment using modern climate models and hypothetical 1860 measurement capabilities to identify this early "human fingerprint" on atmospheric temperatures. The study highlights that stratospheric cooling is a strong indicator due to its clear response to CO2 increases and minimal natural variability, making detection easier than with surface temperatures. The authors of the study emphasize the importance of continued observation of the upper atmosphere for monitoring climate change, especially given current budget cuts impacting climate research.

Meteorology Matters discusses an ongoing lawsuit in Rockland County, New York, challenging the accuracy of the 2024 Presidential and Senate election results, particularly concerning alleged missing votes for Kamala Harris and Diane Sare. The lawsuit, brought by SMART Legislation, seeks a full hand recount due to statistical anomalies and voter affidavits claiming uncounted ballots. A significant point of contention is the "de minimis" software updates to voting machines, which critics argue were untested and lacked transparency. One source further alleges a complex conspiracy involving Eaton, Palantir, and Starlink, claiming these entities manipulated election data remotely and erased digital footprints, suggesting a "vote-flipping algorithm" was in play that resulted in statistically improbable outcomes favoring Donald Trump. While the lawsuit will not overturn the national results, it aims to expose systemic flaws and influence future election integrity policies.