Above-Normal Season Predicted:

• NOAA's official outlook predicts an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin.
• NOAA states a "60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a near-normal season."
• Fox Weather notes that Colorado State University (CSU) also projected an above-average season in their April outlook, with specific numbers slightly higher than historical averages (17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes).

1. NOAA's Specific Forecast Ranges:

• NOAA's annual outlook predicts a range of activity:
• 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
• 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher).
• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
• NOAA expresses "70% confidence in these ranges."
• This contrasts with CSU's approach of providing specific numbers, as mentioned by Fox Weather.

1. Comparison to Average Season:

• An average Atlantic season sees "14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes," according to Fox Weather.
• NOAA's predicted ranges for 2025 (13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes) are generally at or above these average numbers.

1. Influencing Factors for the Outlook:

• ENSO-Neutral Conditions: Both sources emphasize the current ENSO-neutral phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Fox Weather notes that "ENSO-neutral years are notoriously difficult to predict," but NOAA states that "continued ENSO-neutral conditions" are a factor contributing to the expected above-normal season, alongside other elements.
• Warmer Than Average Ocean Temperatures: This is cited as a significant factor. NOAA explicitly states, "Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage." The NOAA press release notes "warmer than average ocean temperatures" and "high-heat content in the ocean" which "provides more energy to fuel storm development."
• Weaker Wind Shear: NOAA forecasts "weak wind shear," which "allow the storms to develop without disruption."
• West African Monsoon: NOAA mentions the "potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon," which is "a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes" and can produce "tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms."
• Unusual Cooler Tropical Waters Compared to 2024 (Fox Weather): Fox Weather notes that tropical waters in the Main Development Region are "approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than 2024 levels," although still "well above the long-term average." This introduces some uncertainty, though light trade winds could change this quickly.

• May 2025 (Earlier in the month): Five former directors of the National Weather Service write a "letter to the American people" expressing concern about staffing shortages and reduced resources, such as weather balloon deployments.
• May 15, 2025: USA TODAY publishes an article highlighting that National Weather Service offices are short-staffed following Trump administration cuts, with some offices no longer operating 24/7. The article also mentions offers for current employees to transfer to fill 155 vacant positions, including 76 meteorologist positions.
• May 16, 2025 (Thursday): The National Weather Service office in Jackson, Kentucky, recognizing the threat of a major severe weather outbreak, decides to fully staff the overnight shift despite being short-staffed.
• May 17, 2025 (Friday): A severe weather system sweeps through the central U.S., including Missouri and Kentucky.
• Afternoon Rush Hour (St. Louis): The path of destruction from a likely tornado begins on a major thoroughfare in St. Louis before moving east.
• Friday (Throughout the day): A tornado strikes several rural areas in Scott County, Missouri, killing two people and injuring several others.
• Friday (Throughout the day): Five people die and 38 are injured in the St. Louis area. Over 5,000 homes in the city are affected.
• Friday (Overnight into Saturday): A devastating tornado impacts Laurel County, Kentucky, at 11:49 p.m.
• May 17, 2025 (Saturday):
• Morning: As of Saturday morning, at least 21 people have died across Missouri and Kentucky (14 in Kentucky, 7 in Missouri). The death toll is expected to rise.
• Saturday: Rescue teams continue searching for survivors in damaged areas.
• Saturday (Throughout the day): City inspectors in St. Louis begin condemning unsafe structures.
• Saturday evening: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear confirms at least 18 deaths in Kentucky and speaks at a press conference in London, Kentucky.
• Saturday evening: St. Louis Mayor Cara Spencer confirms five deaths in the city, over 30 injuries, and approximately 5,000 impacted buildings.
• Saturday night (9 p.m. to 6 a.m. Sunday): A curfew is in effect in St. Louis due to downed power lines and to protect property.
• May 18, 2025 (Sunday):
• As of Sunday, the death toll from the recent storms across multiple states exceeds two dozen.
• Sunday: In London, Kentucky, people whose houses were destroyed work to salvage belongings and put up tarps. Zach Wilson describes the scene at his parents' ruined home.
• Sunday: St. Louis Fire Chief Dennis Jenkerson warns residents to prepare for approaching weather.
• Sunday: The National Weather Service warns of a "multitude of hazardous weather" expected over the next several days.
• Sunday: City inspectors continue to assess damaged areas in St. Louis and condemn unsafe structures.
• Sunday: Authorities confirm two storm-related deaths in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., caused by falling trees.
• Sunday: The NWS Employees Union confirms that short staffing at the Jackson, Kentucky office did not affect tornado warnings for the deadly storms.
• Week of May 19, 2025:
• More severe storms are expected to roll across the central U.S.
• Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and persist into the evening across parts of the Plains into the Ozarks.
• Another storm system is expected to pick up to the west, with strong tornadoes in the forecast for parts of the Plains by Sunday.

• January 2025: A government-wide hiring freeze begins in the United States, impacting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service (NWS).
• February 2025: Approximately 250 NWS employees are fired or take buyouts as part of staffing cuts.
• Sometime between February and May 2025: An additional 300 NWS employees depart the agency, bringing the total number of recent departures and firings to an estimated 500 out of a staff that numbered over 4,200 before President Trump's second term.
• Early May 2025: Five former NWS chiefs issue an open letter warning that the Trump administration's cuts could lead to "a needless loss of life" and that offices are so thinly staffed some roles will have to be filled on a part-time basis.
• Prior to May 14, 2025: NOAA and NWS internal documents reveal a range of open positions across the country. NOAA managers send emails pleading with employees to pursue reassignments, even if they amount to demotions, to fill these gaps. Notices are sent to employees offering to pay moving expenses for staff willing to transfer to critically understaffed offices.
• May 14, 2025:POLITICO first reports on Wednesday morning that NOAA posted 155 job openings at the NWS.
• House Democrats on the Science, Space and Technology Committee, including Rep. Zoe Lofgren and Rep. Gabe Amo, raise alarms about the staffing shortages at the NWS, warning the U.S. is ill-prepared for disasters ahead of hurricane season.
• At a Capitol Hill event, Rep. Zoe Lofgren states that NOAA managers are "frantically trying to fill the gaps" and there appears to be a "panic level" to undo the damage to the weather service. Tom DiLiberto, a former NOAA official, speaks at the event, expressing concern about readiness for hurricane season and highlighting the shuttering of NOAA's database of billion-dollar disasters.
• The Washington Post reports on the NOAA's scramble to fill forecasting jobs, noting the 155 vacancies and that some offices have stopped operating 24 hours a day due to thin staffing. The article mentions offices in California, Kansas, Kentucky, Wyoming, Michigan, Oregon, and Alaska are affected or expected to be affected by overnight closures.
• The Independent reports on the situation, citing CNN's report of 155 jobs the NWS is trying to fill and The Washington Post's report about offering moving expenses. The article also mentions NOAA is retiring its tool to track billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. Dr. Andrew Hazelton, a former Hurricane Hunter who lost his job in the recent layoffs, comments on the situation.
• May 27, 2025 (Deadline): The NWS is seeking to fill the 155 job vacancies by this date.
• June 1, 2025 (Official Start): The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins. Offices in Fairbanks, Alaska, are expected to have overnight closures starting on this date due to vacancies.
• Ongoing in 2025: NOAA staff is expected to fall by 20 percent due to retirements, deferred resignation programs, firings, and a forthcoming reduction-in-force.