As leaders, we’re wired to favor the familiar, but this can blind us to critical shifts in the market and the emergence of disruptive innovations. In today’s episode, we are talking about the confirming evidence trap—a bias that can skew even the sharpest minds, causing you to cling to beliefs and data that reinforce what you already think.

We’ll explore how this evolutionary shortcut leads to costly mistakes and why leaders must confront their assumptions to make better decisions. From Blackberry’s downfall to Nokia’s missed opportunity, we’ll dive into real-world examples of billion-dollar corporate disasters caused by the confirming evidence bias.

Tune in now to learn how to spot and outthink this bias. And if you’re ready to take your leadership to the next level, check out my book, The Mammoth in the Room, where I explore how evolutionary truths can guide better decisions in people, strategy, and implementation.

In this episode:

- Introduction to the confirming evidence trap

- The Blackberry downfall

- Confirming evidence traps in business: The market trap

- The New Coke Disaster case study

- The leadership trap: The Theranos scandal

- The hiring trap: Perfect resume illusion

- How to outthink the confirming evidence bias

Resources Mentioned in the Episode:

Harvard Business Review: The Hidden Traps in Decision Making, John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa (September–October 1998)

https://hbr.org/1998/09/the-hidden-traps-in-decision-making-2

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185,1124-1131(1974). DOI:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211(4481), 453–458.

https://sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/surveys.course/TverskyKahneman1981.pdf

Get in Touch:

Website: https://www.mammothleadershipsciences.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolaspokorny

YouTube: www.youtube.com/@MammothLeadershipSciences