Toronto’s housing market is in free fall — new condo sales have plunged 97% since 2021, costing governments $6.6 billion in lost tax revenue every year. In this episode, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down shocking new data on record-low home sales, how this impacts construction jobs, and why the crisis could get worse before it gets better. They explain how cutting taxes like the GST could revive housing starts without sacrificing affordability, and debate whether foreign buyers and international students should play a role in the market recovery. Don’t miss this deep dive into the numbers and policy ideas that could reshape Canada’s housing future.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:39 Understanding the GTA housing market crash

02:28 Video Link - Where Did All the Jobs Go?

03:01 Governments could lose $6.6 Billion

06:20 Bad housing starts numbers explained

08:42 Contraction in the construction industry means 41000 jobs lost

10:40 How cutting the GST on new homes makes sense

14:00 We need high home construction and affordability

15:09 Foreign Investment and housing supply

16:40 Conclusion and future considerations

Research:

Toronto’s Housing Collapse Will Cost Governments $6.6 Billion a Year

Where DID All the Jobs Go? The Mystery of Rising Unemployment

Altus group reports:

https://www.bildgta.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/6.18.25-Job-Risk-Housing-Pipeline-GTA-Altus-Group.pdf

https://www.bildgta.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Altus-Data-Solutions-media-backgrounder_May-2025.pdf

Toronto New Home Sales Fall To Record Low, Just 42 Condos Sold In The City

The Next Shoe to Drop

How Vaughan is Cutting Housing Costs | The Agenda

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of The Missing Middle, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt are joined by urban planner Alex Beheshti for a deep dive into one of the most overlooked barriers to solving Canada’s housing crisis: zoning data. Alex makes the case for a Canadian Zoning Atlas—an ambitious but essential tool to bring clarity, consistency, and transparency to the country’s fragmented planning systems. They explore why zoning laws are so confusing, how the lack of machine-readable data cripples good policy, and what Canada can learn from international best practices. If we can map census data, why not zoning? From obscure codes to wedding vows about development charges (really!) this is a conversation about why better data might just be the key to better housing.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:00 Canada needs a housing crisis map

01:29 Alex shares his wedding vows

02:48 Previous Alex B episode

02:53 Mike’s philosophy of experimentation and failure

04:05 Understanding zoning: definitions and complexities

07:01 The need for centralized zoning data

09:19 The massive gap in urban planning data

10:30 Envisioning a Canadian zoning atlas

12:16 Canada should emulate the US and Australia

13:49 Future planning tools for Canada

Research/links:

Canada’s Housing Crisis Needs a Map

Guest: Alex Beheshti https://twitter.com/beheshtialex

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Why aren’t we seeing more multiplexes in Canadian cities—even after zoning reforms? In this episode of The Missing Middle, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt dig into the surprising roadblocks holding back infill housing. From bizarre bedroom caps to height limits that make 10-plexes impossible, they unpack how cities say "yes" to housing... and then quietly say "no." They call out the red tape, NIMBY politics, and why it might be time for provinces to take the wheel. If you're wondering why the housing crisis isn’t getting better, this one’s for you. (Full disclosure: This episode was recorded on Friday June 18th, before the Toronto city council watered down sixplex legalization, but the conversation remains entirely relevant.)

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:51 Push-back to multi-unit buildings

03:46 Bedroom limits

06:07 Ron Butler episode

06:34 The rooming-house factor

08:14 Height restrictions and Ottawa story

10:40 Restrictions make good architecture difficult

12:13 Infil is always harder so restrictions make that even worse

14:02 Solutions

research/links:

Edmonton Zoning Bylaw Renewal

City staff recommend permitting sixplexes in residential areas

City staff recommend allowing sixplexes across all Toronto neighbourhoods

Reddit discussion on the above 👆

Toronto city council waters down proposed sixplex legalization, limiting changes to certain neighbourhoods

Toronto wrangles with a simple question: What is a multiplex?

We recommend you read the City Hall Watcher Substack by Matt Elliott

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt tackle how GST rebates are affecting new homebuyers, tracing the history of these incentives and how inflation has quietly eroded their value. With fresh rebate structures now on the table—especially for first-time buyers—they examine what’s working, what’s not, and what’s politically possible. And, of course they have some suggestions on how policy could be shaped to benefit everyone.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:52 A new home in the GTHA for under $450k - impossible

02:23 Understanding GST rebates, their history and impact

04:17 Why are the rebates so small?

06:56 Bill c-4’s first-time-homebuyer rebate

08:09 What the proposed GST rebate misses - seniors downsizing

10:45 Proposed changes to GST rebates

13:00 Will governments make these proposed changes?

14:30 Sabrina’s take

15:37 Concerns about inflation and housing demand

Research/Links:

Is Ontario Ready to Spend $895M to Jumpstart Homebuilding?

The PBOs Math Is Clear: We Need an Expanded GST Housing Rebate

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of the Missing Middle podcast Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt discuss the lack of clear housing goals from political parties, including the Liberals' national housing strategy's focus on low-income earners and the NDP's ineffective communication with younger voters. The conversation highlights the struggle of middle-class individuals to afford housing, the disconnect between political messaging and the lived experiences of young Canadians, and the potential political time bomb ticking as a result of these housing frustrations.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:01 The missing middle-class housing strategy

02:11 Housing as a human right can’t be the only strategy

03:00 There is no vision for middle-class housing

04:15 Some politicians have a vision but not the Liberals

05:19 The Big Lebowski reference

06:31 NDP's struggles with housing communication

09:20 The unconscious bias towards social housing

11:43 A misunderstanding of what middle class means

15:12 Where are the policies that target market housing?

16:20 Mike outlines 3 buckets of housing

18:57 The rightward shift of young people

21:15 The future of home ownership for young Canadians

23:20 Saving for retirement without a home

26:25 Cost of delivery crisis

27:09 Policy solutions

Research:

The Homeownership Journey Is Broken. Policymakers Need to Repair It.

Big Lebowski - Nihilists

Why is the NDP doing so badly, even with progressives? Just take a look at their awful housing

Housing affordability for Millennials and Gen Z

How Taxes, and Taxes-on-Taxes Add Over $250K to a Vancouver Condo

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of the missing Middle podcast conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt discuss the current state of immigration in Canada. Together they examine a Bank of Canada report that focuses on the implications of temporary foreign workers on wages. Mike and Sabrina talk about the challenges faced by new permanent residents, and the ambitious goals set by the Century Initiative for population growth. They explore how these factors intertwine with the housing crisis and the overall economic landscape, emphasizing the need for coherent immigration policies that align with infrastructure and social cohesion.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

00:52 Bank of Canada report on wages and immigration

02:49 The mix of newcomers is different

05:33 New immigrants earn less and country of origin impacts wages

07:21 This is only becoming more pronounced

09:11 The wage gap is shrinking for Permanent Residence

10:08 But it’s a good news, bad news story

11:00 The role of wage suppression

13:56 How does this impact social cohesion

15:25 The Century Initiative and population growth goals

Research:

The Shift in Canadian Immigration Composition and its Effect on Wages

Canada's population needs to be 100 million by 2100

Canada on track for 100 million population but public support can’t be taken for granted: Century Initiative CEO

The 'Century Initiative' is the talk of the campaign, but what is it?

You Can't Grow a Country Just On Temporary Immigration

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of the Missing Middle podcast, mortgage broker Ron Butler sits down with conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt to discuss the current crisis in the Toronto condo market. Ron outlines the vast scope of the problem stemming from pre-construction purchases made during a speculative boom. He explains how investors are facing significant losses as property values decline, while also addressing the broader implications of poor development choices and the lack of low-rise housing options. The conversation explores the role of government in addressing these issues and the potential for positive change in the housing market.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction Ron Butler

01:06 Outlining the Toronto condo market crisis

04:07 How much of this story is a Toronto and Vancouver story?

05:22 Never go cash-flow negative?

07:01 How do we have a glut of condos during a housing shortage?

09:51 How condo developers contributed to the crash

12:13 Who is Most Affected by the Crisis?

14:00 Financing challenges and future outlook

15:33 The perfect storm - purpose-built rentals

17:18 Government subsidized rentals

18:13 The greenbelt and Downview Airport land

19:39 Is this the Toronto bubble burst? Is it The One?

20:23 Low-rise homes in Toronto - a brief history of artificial scarcity

23:05 What about family sized condos?

25:08 What’s the best non-terrible case scenario here?

27:32 The role of government in housing solutions

29:08 It wouldn’t be an MM podcast without Mike talking about development charges

30:25 Sabrina wants the government to get out of the way

Research and links:

The Angry Mortgage podcast

How low will rents go?

416 Condo Crash

Chart Storm: Five graphs on Toronto’s historic condo market collapse

Guest: Ron Butler, https://x.com/ronmortgageguy

https://www.butlermortgage.ca/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode, conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt discuss the potential of factory built homes as a solution to the housing crisis. They explore the promises made by politicians regarding prefabricated housing, the spectrum of factory built homes, and the claims of reduced construction times, costs, and emissions. The conversation delves into the current challenges faced in North America, including regulatory barriers and municipal approvals.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Factory Built Homes (FBH)

01:34 Innovation in homebuilding

03:25 Understanding the spectrum of factory built homes

05:22 Claims of speed, cost, and emissions

07:45 Current challenges in North America

09:33 Where do the reductions in emissions come from?

10:18 Perceptions of FBH among younger generations

13:30 Regulatory barriers to adoption

15:41 Municipal approvals and their impact

17:40 Where would the election promise money go?

19:19 The potential benefits for traditional builders

20:12 Optimism for the future of FBH

Research/Links:

Scott Aitchison

Building More, Building Faster

Caivan

Why is it So Hard to Mass-Produce Housing?

Eight Pieces of Housing Advice to the Prime Minister

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.