Christmas came early for Tiwai Aluminium Smelter.

They get to do business. In fact, they get to do business in a country where you would have thought doing business is to be encouraged.

They have been prevented from doing all the business they can because they have a deal with their power company, Meridian, whereby they have to contain themselves if things are a bit tight in the old power department.

It is indeed a weird, old world where we revel in ideas like AI and crypto and data centres, and yet we don’t have the slightest idea where the power to make it all work is coming from.

Big tech is under pressure globally. It is claimed they have data centres running and using things like water in areas of the planet where water is scarce.

New Zealand wants to be a data centre hub, and yet we can't allow an aluminium plant to run to its capacity because it didn’t rain enough.

The good news is it has rained a bit lately so the southern lakes look solid, which means, they think, we might not be as pinched as we have been in other winters.

The idea that you aspire to run a power grid that is reliant on things you have no control over is a very modern version of insanity.

We need it to rain, we need it to blow, and we need the sun to shine. We have no control over any of these things so we convince ourselves we aren't idiots by thinking we will build options.

So if the sun isn't out, the wind will be. Or if it doesn’t blow, at least it will rain.

But when it doesn’t do any of those things, which it hasn’t, we need Tiwai and your average punter to take it easy on the cold mornings.

And that's with, right here, right now, hardly any AI, crypto not really being a thing here, and data centres at a minimum. Imagine how stuck we would be if we had actually got any of these things up and running?

Gas would help. But Labour stopped all that and our re-opening of the market is only just beginning. We really do look very 1987.

In the meantime, the coal comes in from Indonesia, defeating the entire purpose of the climate exercise of renewables.

Cart before horse, anyone?

They say it will all work out, eventually. We will have so much renewable capacity, and we will have all bases covered, apparently. Do you believe that?

Do you believe a country that makes its biggest power user limit its capacity every time winter comes around, really is a country that deals successfully in big picture thinking?

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Politicians aren’t worrying too much about the latest poll results.

There were starkly different results in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll and 1News-Verian poll – with the first showing the left bloc in the lead and the second showing the right bloc well ahead.

Labour’s Ginny Andersen told Mike Hosking the polls bounce around, so they don’t take them to heart that much.

She says in general, Labour is gradually trending upwards but they know they have more work to do, which is what they’ve been taking from the polls.

National’s Mark Mitchell told Hosking he doesn’t take much notice of them, as what matters is what happens next year heading into the election.

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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 4th of June, our international visitor spending is up, but the Government hasn't taken inflation into account. Why not?

A LIV Golf-type rugby competition is attempting to get off the ground. It's called R360 and is backed by Mike Tindall.

Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell talk the polls, the Sport New Zealand review, the fireworks petition, and whether either of them had read Jacinda Ardern's book.

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Foodstuffs North Island's facial recognition trial might have the tick of approval overall, but there's still work to do.

The Privacy Commission's ruled the trial was compliant with the Privacy Act and was successful in reducing harmful behaviour.

But Commissioner Michael Webster told Mike Hosking they're recommending Foodstuffs keep systems updated and review impacts of skin tone on identification accuracy.

Webster says there are still concerns over technical bias issues due to the software coming from overseas.

It's also made recommendations for other interested businesses.

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Renewing existing infrastructure rather than investing in new shiny projects is the best way to go, according to a new report co-produced by the Helen Clark Foundation and WSP New Zealand.

The foundation claims 99% of the infrastructure New Zealand needs, has already been built.

Foundation Deputy Director Kali Mercier says renewals and repairs are much cheaper.

She told Mike Hosking one of their recommendations is keeping scorecards so the management and condition of major infrastructure can be tracked.

Mercier says that currently, just one of six central government agencies keeps a full asset register, and just two have comprehensive asset management plans in place.

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New Zealand Rugby Players Association boss Rob Nichol admits their members have been approached to join a new global breakaway club competition.

R360 —backed by former England international Mike Tindall— is set to launch in 2026.

The league plans to mirror the likes of sevens and F1, moving from port to port with events at major cities and stadia around the globe.

Nichol told Mike Hosking they've been across the proposal since last year.

He says that from a player perspective, it’s about waiting and seeing as competitions like this have to get through some pretty strong headwinds to succeed.

Nichol says one of R360's proposed calendar blocks from April to June is likely to face strong opposition from the sport's global governors.

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Concerns bad investment choices in electricity generation will keep our supply unreliable.

Tiwai Point aluminium smelter is ramping up production reversing previous restrictions, to ease winter supply concerns.

Meridian Energy says the hydro storage is looking much healthier this winter.

Major Electricity Users' Group Chair John Harbord told Mike Hosking restrictions will likely be back in force next winter, without investment in firmer electricity supply like geothermal and hydro plants.

He says solar panels only generate electricity 25% of the time and wind turbines only create energy 40% of the time.

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Fewer people are behind on debt payments.

Centrix's May Indicator Report shows consumer arrears fell in April – it was the fourth month in a row where overall arrears were lower than 2024.

However, the number of consumers who are more than 90 days past due has risen to its highest since July last year.

Managing Director Keith McLaughlin told Mike Hosking they’re starting to see household budgets become balanced.

He says to an extent, it could be due to the dropping interest rates starting to flow through into budgets.

However, it could be a while before we see an easing in the high rate of company liquidations.

Company liquidations are up 30% year-on-year, with 175 recorded in April.

McLaughlin says they should stabilise in the next couple of months, before trending downward.

He says there's an increase in consumer confidence, meaning people are going out and spending more, which will create stimulation for businesses.

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