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The Hype Cycle: A Roadmap for Navigating Emerging Technologies
- 2025/01/05
- 再生時間： 4 分
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あらすじ・解説
The Hype Cycle, a concept popularized by Gartner, is a graphical representation that maps the lifecycle stages of emerging technologies from their inception to widespread adoption. This cycle is crucial for understanding the trajectory of innovative technologies and making informed decisions about their potential.
### Phase 1: Innovation Trigger
The journey begins with the Innovation Trigger, where a breakthrough, public demonstration, or product launch sparks media and industry interest. This stage is marked by prototypes and proof-of-concept demonstrations, but often lacks functional products or thorough market studies. The excitement generated here sets the stage for what is to come[2][4].
### Phase 2: Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more attention, it reaches the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Here, media outlets and industry analysts amplify the hype, leading to unrealistic expectations about the technology's capabilities. This phase can sometimes create a financial bubble around the innovation, where the excitement far exceeds the current reality of its capabilities[2][4].
### Phase 3: Trough of Disillusionment
The bubble inevitably bursts, and the technology enters the Trough of Disillusionment. This phase is characterized by performance issues, slower-than-expected adoption, and a failure to deliver timely financial returns. The initial overexcitement dissipates, and disillusionment sets in as the technology fails to meet the lofty expectations set in the previous phase[2][4].
### Phase 4: Slope of Enlightenment
As the technology navigates through its challenges, it enters the Slope of Enlightenment. Here, early adopters begin to see the benefits of the innovation by overcoming initial hurdles. Organizations learn from these experiences, gaining a better understanding of where and how the technology can deliver significant value. This phase is critical for refining the technology and aligning it with real-world needs[2][4].
### Phase 5: Plateau of Productivity
Finally, the technology reaches the Plateau of Productivity, where it has demonstrated real-world benefits and productivity. At this stage, more organizations feel comfortable adopting the technology, and it becomes mainstream. The risk associated with the technology is greatly reduced, and widespread adoption begins[2][4].
### Practical Applications
The Hype Cycle is more than just a theoretical model; it is a practical tool for businesses and investors. It helps in making informed technology investment decisions, determining the right time to adopt a technology, and justifying whether to continue or terminate a technology project. By understanding the current phase of a technology, organizations can plan their strategies, manage risks, and capitalize on opportunities[1][4].
In summary, the Hype Cycle provides a clear roadmap for the life cycle of emerging technologies, from the initial hype to mainstream adoption. By recognizing and understanding these phases, stakeholders can navigate the complexities of technological innovation more effectively, making better decisions that align with their goals and risk appetites.
### Phase 1: Innovation Trigger
The journey begins with the Innovation Trigger, where a breakthrough, public demonstration, or product launch sparks media and industry interest. This stage is marked by prototypes and proof-of-concept demonstrations, but often lacks functional products or thorough market studies. The excitement generated here sets the stage for what is to come[2][4].
### Phase 2: Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more attention, it reaches the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Here, media outlets and industry analysts amplify the hype, leading to unrealistic expectations about the technology's capabilities. This phase can sometimes create a financial bubble around the innovation, where the excitement far exceeds the current reality of its capabilities[2][4].
### Phase 3: Trough of Disillusionment
The bubble inevitably bursts, and the technology enters the Trough of Disillusionment. This phase is characterized by performance issues, slower-than-expected adoption, and a failure to deliver timely financial returns. The initial overexcitement dissipates, and disillusionment sets in as the technology fails to meet the lofty expectations set in the previous phase[2][4].
### Phase 4: Slope of Enlightenment
As the technology navigates through its challenges, it enters the Slope of Enlightenment. Here, early adopters begin to see the benefits of the innovation by overcoming initial hurdles. Organizations learn from these experiences, gaining a better understanding of where and how the technology can deliver significant value. This phase is critical for refining the technology and aligning it with real-world needs[2][4].
### Phase 5: Plateau of Productivity
Finally, the technology reaches the Plateau of Productivity, where it has demonstrated real-world benefits and productivity. At this stage, more organizations feel comfortable adopting the technology, and it becomes mainstream. The risk associated with the technology is greatly reduced, and widespread adoption begins[2][4].
### Practical Applications
The Hype Cycle is more than just a theoretical model; it is a practical tool for businesses and investors. It helps in making informed technology investment decisions, determining the right time to adopt a technology, and justifying whether to continue or terminate a technology project. By understanding the current phase of a technology, organizations can plan their strategies, manage risks, and capitalize on opportunities[1][4].
In summary, the Hype Cycle provides a clear roadmap for the life cycle of emerging technologies, from the initial hype to mainstream adoption. By recognizing and understanding these phases, stakeholders can navigate the complexities of technological innovation more effectively, making better decisions that align with their goals and risk appetites.