Timestamps

(00:36) Inflation data and MPC expectations

(07:45) GDP growth

(11:00) Scottish Budget Report developments

(20:08) Other fiscal news in 2025

(22:01) Allison and Mairi discuss air quality research

(26:20) Hannah and Mairi discuss the Scottish Child Payment and foodbank usage

(31:45) Ben and Mairi discuss Economic Futures

(35:40) Live! Scottish GDP data comes out during the podcast

PARTICIPANTS

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

TIME STAMPS

(0:21) Summary of main announcements
(1:37) Mitigation of the two-child limit
(3:42) What has happened with the budget for housing?
(5:15) Hospitality relief - similar to relief in England & Wales?
(8:30) Implications of omitting employer NICs from forecasts on public sector pay
(13:43) Income tax and what the SFC forecasts tell us about future years
(19:22) Further analysis - what to look out for

FAI economist Hannah Randolph is joined by Luke Michaelides and Phil Gooding from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Consumer Prices team to talk about inflation statistics. We cover what measures of inflation are produced by ONS, how they differ, and recent developments in methodology and the data underlying the statistics. We end by discussing how inflation rates impact households and businesses.

Participants

Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Luke Michaelides, Branch Head, Consumer Prices Development and Subgroup Production, ONS

Phil Gooding, Statistician, Consumer Prices Inflation, ONS

Time stamps

(1:00) What are the different measures of inflation produced by ONS? How do they differ?

(2:25) What are the Household Costs Indices and what do they say about how inflation affects different groups?

(5:25) What types of data are used to produce these inflation measures?

(7:20) How have the methods of collecting data for and calculating inflation changed?

(10:20) What do changes in the inflation rate mean for households and businesses? What should people keep in mind when they hear about inflation on the news?