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Navigating the Hype Cycle: Unlocking the Secrets of Emerging Technologies
- 2025/01/28
- 再生時間： 3 分
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あらすじ・解説
The Hype Cycle, a concept developed by Gartner, is a graphical representation of the lifecycle stages a technology or innovation goes through from its initial development to its widespread adoption and eventual decline. Here’s a breakdown of the five distinct phases of this cycle:
## Innovation Trigger
This is the stage where a new technology is first introduced to the public, often emerging from research labs, universities, or think tanks. There is typically a lot of media interest and proof-of-concept demonstrations, generating significant hype about the technology's potential applications.
## Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more attention, media outlets and industry analysts amplify the hype, leading to unrealistic expectations about its capabilities. This phase is characterized by a surge in enthusiasm, sometimes to the point of creating a financial bubble around the innovation.
## Trough of Disillusionment
Reality sets in as the technology fails to meet the lofty expectations set during the previous phase. Performance issues, slower-than-expected adoption, or a failure to deliver timely financial returns lead to a decline in enthusiasm and a period of disillusionment.
## Slope of Enlightenment
In this phase, early adopters begin to see the real-world benefits of the technology. As more organizations gain experience with the innovation, they develop a better understanding of its capabilities and limitations. This leads to more effective implementation and a gradual increase in adoption.
## Plateau of Productivity
The final phase is where the technology reaches maturity and widespread adoption. Here, the innovation has demonstrated real-world productivity and benefits, and the risk associated with its adoption is significantly reduced. This results in a sharp increase in mainstream adoption until the technology becomes an integral part of the market.
The Hype Cycle is a valuable tool for businesses and technology leaders to evaluate innovations, assess their potential, and make informed investment decisions. By understanding these phases, organizations can navigate the risks and opportunities associated with emerging technologies and plan their technology roadmaps more effectively[2][4][5].
## Innovation Trigger
This is the stage where a new technology is first introduced to the public, often emerging from research labs, universities, or think tanks. There is typically a lot of media interest and proof-of-concept demonstrations, generating significant hype about the technology's potential applications.
## Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more attention, media outlets and industry analysts amplify the hype, leading to unrealistic expectations about its capabilities. This phase is characterized by a surge in enthusiasm, sometimes to the point of creating a financial bubble around the innovation.
## Trough of Disillusionment
Reality sets in as the technology fails to meet the lofty expectations set during the previous phase. Performance issues, slower-than-expected adoption, or a failure to deliver timely financial returns lead to a decline in enthusiasm and a period of disillusionment.
## Slope of Enlightenment
In this phase, early adopters begin to see the real-world benefits of the technology. As more organizations gain experience with the innovation, they develop a better understanding of its capabilities and limitations. This leads to more effective implementation and a gradual increase in adoption.
## Plateau of Productivity
The final phase is where the technology reaches maturity and widespread adoption. Here, the innovation has demonstrated real-world productivity and benefits, and the risk associated with its adoption is significantly reduced. This results in a sharp increase in mainstream adoption until the technology becomes an integral part of the market.
The Hype Cycle is a valuable tool for businesses and technology leaders to evaluate innovations, assess their potential, and make informed investment decisions. By understanding these phases, organizations can navigate the risks and opportunities associated with emerging technologies and plan their technology roadmaps more effectively[2][4][5].