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Navigating the 2025 US Housing Market: Balancing Affordability and Supply Challenges
- 2025/01/01
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あらすじ・解説
The current state of the US housing industry is characterized by a complex set of dynamics, with several key factors shaping the landscape. As we enter 2025, the market is expected to face a more balanced but still challenging environment.
Home prices are projected to continue growing, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the explosive increases of recent years. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed a 3.6% annual increase in October 2024, signaling a more stable pricing environment moving into 2025. The National Association of Realtors forecasts a median home price of around $410,700 in 2025, reflecting a slight slowdown in price appreciation, estimated at around 2%[1].
Inventory levels, which have been historically low in recent years, are projected to see gradual improvement as 2025 unfolds. Increased housing inventory is likely to be driven by stabilized mortgage rates and more new construction, particularly in suburban and developing markets. Single-family homes and entry-level housing are expected to be a focus, catering to the large segment of first-time homebuyers who have struggled with affordability[1].
The supply picture will differ across regions. In fast-growing markets such as Texas, Florida, and parts of the Midwest, new construction is expected to pick up, driven by strong job growth, relative affordability, and higher levels of in-migration[1].
However, the US housing market continues to suffer from the long-term effects of underbuilding, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis. Despite improvements in new construction, inventory levels remain insufficient to meet the growing demand from both new households and relocating buyers. It is expected to take several years to fully address the supply shortage, meaning that housing affordability will likely remain a challenge in many areas[1].
Recent data indicates that available unsold inventory of homes on the market is nearly 27% greater than a year ago, with almost every market in the country having more homes available now than at the end of 2023. Ten states have more inventory unsold than in 2019, which was the last sort of “normal” year before the pandemic[3].
In terms of home sales, there were 47,000 new contracts started for single-family home sales in the last week, which was a little bounce up from the week prior and 3% more sales started than the same week a year ago. This month is averaging 50,000 new contracts pending each week, which is actually 10% more home sales than last year[3].
Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by focusing on increasing inventory and addressing affordability issues. For example, builders are ramping up efforts to address the housing shortage, particularly in suburban and developing markets. Additionally, the National Association of Realtors predicts an uptick of nearly 2 million jobs for 2025 and another nearly 2 million increase in 2026, which could bode well for the housing market[5].
In conclusion, the US housing market in 2025 is expected to face a more balanced but still complex set of dynamics. While home prices will continue to grow, the pace of appreciation will slow, and affordability may improve slightly due to more stabilized mortgage rates and increased inventory. However, supply remains a significant issue, and it will take several years to fully address the supply shortage, meaning that housing affordability will likely remain a challenge in many areas.
Home prices are projected to continue growing, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the explosive increases of recent years. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed a 3.6% annual increase in October 2024, signaling a more stable pricing environment moving into 2025. The National Association of Realtors forecasts a median home price of around $410,700 in 2025, reflecting a slight slowdown in price appreciation, estimated at around 2%[1].
Inventory levels, which have been historically low in recent years, are projected to see gradual improvement as 2025 unfolds. Increased housing inventory is likely to be driven by stabilized mortgage rates and more new construction, particularly in suburban and developing markets. Single-family homes and entry-level housing are expected to be a focus, catering to the large segment of first-time homebuyers who have struggled with affordability[1].
The supply picture will differ across regions. In fast-growing markets such as Texas, Florida, and parts of the Midwest, new construction is expected to pick up, driven by strong job growth, relative affordability, and higher levels of in-migration[1].
However, the US housing market continues to suffer from the long-term effects of underbuilding, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis. Despite improvements in new construction, inventory levels remain insufficient to meet the growing demand from both new households and relocating buyers. It is expected to take several years to fully address the supply shortage, meaning that housing affordability will likely remain a challenge in many areas[1].
Recent data indicates that available unsold inventory of homes on the market is nearly 27% greater than a year ago, with almost every market in the country having more homes available now than at the end of 2023. Ten states have more inventory unsold than in 2019, which was the last sort of “normal” year before the pandemic[3].
In terms of home sales, there were 47,000 new contracts started for single-family home sales in the last week, which was a little bounce up from the week prior and 3% more sales started than the same week a year ago. This month is averaging 50,000 new contracts pending each week, which is actually 10% more home sales than last year[3].
Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by focusing on increasing inventory and addressing affordability issues. For example, builders are ramping up efforts to address the housing shortage, particularly in suburban and developing markets. Additionally, the National Association of Realtors predicts an uptick of nearly 2 million jobs for 2025 and another nearly 2 million increase in 2026, which could bode well for the housing market[5].
In conclusion, the US housing market in 2025 is expected to face a more balanced but still complex set of dynamics. While home prices will continue to grow, the pace of appreciation will slow, and affordability may improve slightly due to more stabilized mortgage rates and increased inventory. However, supply remains a significant issue, and it will take several years to fully address the supply shortage, meaning that housing affordability will likely remain a challenge in many areas.