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  • 2025 6-05 Matters of Democracy accurate Economic Data, travel, Ivy league, legal help
    2025/06/05

    Travel Ban v2.0: Expanded Restrictions and Political Theater, The administration has announced a complete travel ban on citizens from 12 countries (Afghanistan, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen) and partial bans on 7 others (Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela).

    Suppression of Unfavorable Information: Trump officials are reportedly censoring government reports that contradict the President's narrative. A recent example is the suppression of a forecast in an agricultural trade report predicting an increased trade deficit, as "Trade deficits are anathema to Trump." The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reduced inflation data collection due to the government hiring freeze. This includes "reducing sample in areas across the country" and stopping data collection entirely in specific cities (Lincoln, Provo, Buffalo).

    Crusade Against Universities: Targeting Dissent and Control. Trump is escalating his "war on the universities," characterized by "firing bazooka shots at two of the Ivy League universities he has decided are the enemy." The "war" is nominally about antisemitism but "in reality is clearly about something else." Thomas Edsall suggests Trump "hates higher education in toto, and especially the elite institutions, and wouldn't mind destroying a few of them as an example to the others." Trump justified cutting grants to Harvard because "the students they have, the professors they have, the attitude they have, is not American."

    Ex-DoJ Lawyers Form Defense Group: Former Department of Justice (DoJ) lawyers are forming a network to provide legal assistance to individuals targeted by the Trump administration, especially those who cannot secure representation from large law firms due to fear of reprisal.

    Trump Wins Election Case (Standing): A lawsuit filed by Democrats challenging an Executive Order (XO) mandating that all executive branch agencies obey legal opinions issued by the Attorney General (AG) was dismissed. Judge Amir Ali ruled that the Democrats lacked standing as they could not demonstrate actual damage had already occurred. The ruling leaves open the possibility of refiling if concrete damages can be shown.

    Birthright Citizenship Case in Appeals Court: An appeal is underway in the Ninth Circuit regarding Trump's XO limiting U.S. citizenship to those born in the U.S. to at least one citizen parent.

    Economic Contraction: The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" reports that "economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report" and that the "U.S. economy has contracted over the past six weeks." Inflation: Prices are rising "at a moderate pace" with "widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward." Businesses anticipate passing along tariff-related costs within three months. Regional Disparities: Boston, New York, and Philadelphia reported declining economic activity, while Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago saw better growth. New York specifically cited "heightened uncertainty" and "tariff-induced cost increases."

    Dutch Government Collapse

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    26 分
  • 2025 6-04 Matters of Democracy Tarriffs, USDA Farm Report, Musk bash OBBB, USNS Milk
    2025/06/04

    Increased Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. This is a significant escalation of existing tariffs. Obscured Consumer Impact.

    Politicization of Government Data: The USDA Farm Trade Report. Delayed and Redacted Report: Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a quarterly USDA farm trade report because its forecast of an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods. The unredacted analysis projected a record deficit of $49.5 billion for the current fiscal year, surpassing the previous record of $31.8 billion in fiscal 2024.

    Elon Musk, "now that he's been cut loose," has launched a "verbal rampage" against the "massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill," calling it a "disgusting abomination."

    The Harvey Milk Story and USNS Harvey Milk Renaming Controversy. The White House has confirmed it will not issue a proclamation honoring Pride Month, a tradition for Democratic presidents since Bill Clinton (1999) but not for Republican presidents, Pushing too far could lead people to conclude that "the anti-trans stuff... is just a smokescreen" for broader anti-gay sentiment, potentially triggering an "anti-anti-gay backlash" similar to the 1970s, which ultimately helped Harvey Milk get elected.

    Supreme Court Declines Gun Law Appeals (for now)

    Supreme Court Declines Racial Discrimination Case. The Court refused to hear a racial discrimination case from Texas. The Fifth Circuit ruled that Chanel Nicholson, a Black adult entertainer, brought her case too late.

    Lee Jae-myung (DPK) Wins: Lee Jae-myung of the center-left Democratic Party (DPK) won the South Korean presidential election. The Trump White House is "clearly unhappy about the results" and declined to comment.

    Karol Nawrocki (PiS) Elected President: Karol Nawrocki of the far-right/populist Law and Justice Party (PiS) was elected president.

    Importance of Remembrance: The submission emphasizes the importance of keeping these family stories alive and that "Remembrance is a commitment, it's an act,"

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    20 分
  • 2025 6-03 Matters of Democracy OBBB, US debt Limit, Musk departs
    2025/06/03

    The "Big, Beautiful Bill": Political Headwinds and Internal Divisions, Parliamentarian Review,

    U.S. Debt Limit 2025: Financial Market Stability Amidst Political Uncertainty. Concerns about declining reserves have led to discussions about the Federal Reserve pausing, slowing, or stopping quantitative tightening. The FOMC "announced on March 19 its intention to slow the balance sheet runoff," reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion.

    Elon Musk's Reputation and DOGE Departures. Elon Musk's reputation continues to suffer, with accusations of drug abuse reported by The New York Times. Additionally, several key personnel are leaving DOGE, including Steve Davis (day-to-day operations) and James Burnham (top attorney). There is an unconfirmed rumor about Katie Miller (wife of Stephen Miller) also leaving, linked speculatively to Musk's black eye and Stephen Miller's left-handedness.

    USAID Cuts and Public Health Impact, Boston University's Department of Public Health estimates that Musk's USAID cuts have already led to the deaths of 300,000 people, the great majority of them children,

    Antisemitism and Free Speech Debates

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    23 分
  • 2025 6-02 Matters of Democracy - Musk, OBBB, Dem Primary, Senate parliamentarian
    2025/06/02

    The Political Standing and Legacy of Key Figures: Analysis of the reputation and impact of prominent individuals, including Elon Musk and Donald Trump, and the dynamics of their relationships.

    Conservative Legal Movement and Judicial Appointments: Examination of the influence of organizations like the Federalist Society and the criteria for judicial appointments under a potential Trump administration.

    Immigration Policy and Supreme Court Rulings: Discussion of recent Supreme Court decisions on immigration, the humanitarian parole program, and the potential implications for protected migrants.

    Public Reception of Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill": Reporting on voter reactions and concerns regarding the proposed legislation, particularly its impact on social programs and the national deficit.

    Challenges to the Democratic Primary Process: Exploration of the ongoing debate within the Democratic party regarding the sequencing of primary states in 2028 and its potential impact on candidate selection.

    Republican Efforts to Restrict Citizen Initiatives: Analysis of attempts by Republican-controlled state legislatures to limit or undermine the ballot initiative process in response to voter-approved measures.

    Questionable Government Reports and the Use of AI: Investigation into a specific report (MAHA) that appears to contain fabricated citations and may have been partially generated by artificial intelligence.

    Competition for House Oversight Committee Ranking Member: Overview of the contenders vying for the position of Ranking Member on the House Oversight Committee and the significance of this role.

    The Senate Filibuster and the Byrd Rule: Detailed explanation of the potential conflict between Trump's proposed bill, the Senate parliamentarian, the Byrd Rule, and the future of the filibuster.

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    28 分
  • 2025 5-28 Matters of Democracy - Immigration, DeSantis, Tariffs and Courts, Deficits
    2025/05/30

    Immigration Policy and Allegations of Fascism: The Trump administration is pursuing increasingly severe and controversial immigration policies.

    Once considered a rising star and potential heir to the "MAGA throne," Governor Ron DeSantis is now seen as politically declining.

    A significant ruling from the U.S. Court of International Trade (USCIT) struck down "virtually all of the tariffs that Donald Trump had announced since becoming president for a second time." The ruling could also hinder Republican efforts to use tariff revenue to offset the cost of a roughly "$4 trillion tax cut."

    Existing tariffs that would remain include: "25% duty on most auto imports," "25% duty on most auto parts imports," and "25% duty on all steel, aluminum, and aluminum articles. "White House claims that tariffs would generate "hundreds of billions of dollars a year" are contested by the court ruling.

    Multiple independent analyses contradict White House and Republican claims about the fiscal impact of the recently passed House reconciliation bill.

    Despite claims of "more than $1.5 trillion in savings," these analyses indicate the bill will "add trillions of dollars to the federal deficit over 10 years." The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates the bill will add "$3.1 trillion with interest" to the deficit over 10 years.

    The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) estimates the bill increases primary deficits by "$2.8 trillion over 10 years." PWBM's dynamic scoring, which accounts for economic effects, estimates an even higher cost of "$3.2 trillion" over 10 years, contradicting Republican suggestions that dynamic scoring would reduce the reported cost. PWBM's analysis indicates that "lower-income households and some in the middle class are worse off" under dynamic scoring due to cuts in safety net programs and higher federal debt.

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    20 分
  • 2025 5-28 Matters of Democracy Trump's Tumultuous Term: Trade, Personnel, and Power Plays
    2025/05/29

    Challenges to Trump's Trade War Policies: Multiple factors are undermining the effectiveness and legality of Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies, including a significant court ruling, existing legal loopholes, market reactions, and resistance from businesses.

    Administration Personnel Changes: A notable figure, Elon Musk, has departed the administration, while a potential judicial nominee, Emil Bove, with close ties to Trump, has been put forward.

    Congressional Maneuvering and Rule Bending: Republicans in the Senate are employing procedural tactics, particularly concerning the budget reconciliation process and the Congressional Review Act, to bypass potential Democratic filibusters and the rulings of the Senate Parliamentarian to advance Trump's legislative agenda.

    Unprecedented Presidential Self-Enrichment: Donald Trump's use of the presidency to accumulate personal wealth is described as historically unprecedented in American politics, surpassing previous instances of corruption and nepotism among past presidents.

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    27 分
  • 2025 5-28 Matters of Democracy Economic Data Discrepancies and Policy Debates on OBBB Act
    2025/05/28

    Recent economic data reveals a persistent divergence between "soft" sentiment-based indicators, which suggest a weakening outlook, and "hard" quantifiable data, which remains more resilient, particularly in the labor market. This "soft vs. hard" divide is heavily influenced by ongoing policy uncertainty, primarily concerning trade tariffs. Soft data is showing some tentative signs of improvement, but the path forward remains unclear due to unpredictable policy shifts. Simultaneously, a significant political debate is underway regarding potential cuts to social safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP, with Republicans emphasizing fiscal restraint and targeting waste while Democrats warn of harm to vulnerable populations.

    Persistent Soft vs. Hard Data Discrepancy

    Policy Uncertainty (Especially Trade Tariffs)

    University of Michigan (UMich) surveys show both shorter- and longer-term inflation expectations have spiked higher, contrasting with the actual core CPI trending lower.

    Political Debate on Social Safety Nets (Medicaid and SNAP): Republican Senator Dave McCormick supports improving the bill with "more fiscal restraint" and targeting "out-of-control spending" in Medicaid. Senator John Fetterman (D) has stated he will not vote for the bill due to its impact on assistance programs.

    The Pennsylvania Department of Human Services (DHS) verifies income, household information, citizenship, and residency status through multiple databases

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    20 分
  • 2025 5-23 Matters of Democracy Trump Memorial Day, Harvard
    2025/05/27

    Observations on Donald Trump's Behavior and Mental State

    The Trump Administration's Actions Against Harvard University

    Allegations of Corruption and Weaponization of the Justice System

    Pardon of Sheriff Scott Jenkins

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    17 分