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Cautious Movement in US Housing Industry: Inventory Builds, Prices Firm, Affordability Concerns Persist
- 2025/04/17
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Cautious Movement in US Housing Industry: Inventory Builds, Prices Firm, Affordability Concerns Persist
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サマリー
あらすじ・解説
In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry has shown cautious movement amid shifting supply, firm prices, and regulatory uncertainty. Data from March and early April reveals that home prices nationwide rose 2.5 percent year over year, with the median sale price now near 398,400 dollars. At the same time, the number of homes sold declined 3.3 percent, while total homes for sale rose 15 percent to 1.8 million, indicating a noticeable buildup in inventory compared to last year. This trend reflects a market where sellers are slowly regaining leverage, but buyers remain limited, largely due to affordability pressures and mortgage rates that have not significantly eased in recent weeks.
Existing home sales have slightly rebounded, up 4.2 percent in February from January but still 1.2 percent lower than a year ago. New home sales rose modestly by 1.8 percent in February, despite regional disparities such as sharp declines in the West and Northeast and gains in the South and Midwest. The median price for new homes is now 414,500 dollars, supported by an elevated inventory of 500,000 units, equaling almost nine months of supply at current sales rates. Nationwide, the volume of new listings has grown 8.5 percent year over year, with homes taking a median of 47 days to sell, six days longer than last year.
Major disruptions remain on the supply side. The US is still running a housing shortage of nearly four million units and, at the current rate of construction, could need more than seven years to close that gap. Regulatory costs and tariffs, especially on key materials like lumber, have added upward pressure on prices. For example, recent tariffs on Canadian lumber have led to price spikes, exacerbating affordability woes in price-sensitive markets.
Industry leaders like national homebuilders are prioritizing entry-level housing in high-growth Sun Belt regions, streamlined operations, and lobbying for regulatory relief. The industry is watching potential Trump-administration changes that could impact immigration and labor supply, further complicating construction costs and timelines.
Compared to last year, inventory levels are up, but sales volume remains subdued. Consumer behavior is shifting toward more cautious, price-sensitive buying, with many waiting for mortgage rates to drop further. While leaders in the industry are adapting with targeted regional building and digital sales tools, the sector remains in a holding pattern, cautious but steadier than at this time in 2024.
Existing home sales have slightly rebounded, up 4.2 percent in February from January but still 1.2 percent lower than a year ago. New home sales rose modestly by 1.8 percent in February, despite regional disparities such as sharp declines in the West and Northeast and gains in the South and Midwest. The median price for new homes is now 414,500 dollars, supported by an elevated inventory of 500,000 units, equaling almost nine months of supply at current sales rates. Nationwide, the volume of new listings has grown 8.5 percent year over year, with homes taking a median of 47 days to sell, six days longer than last year.
Major disruptions remain on the supply side. The US is still running a housing shortage of nearly four million units and, at the current rate of construction, could need more than seven years to close that gap. Regulatory costs and tariffs, especially on key materials like lumber, have added upward pressure on prices. For example, recent tariffs on Canadian lumber have led to price spikes, exacerbating affordability woes in price-sensitive markets.
Industry leaders like national homebuilders are prioritizing entry-level housing in high-growth Sun Belt regions, streamlined operations, and lobbying for regulatory relief. The industry is watching potential Trump-administration changes that could impact immigration and labor supply, further complicating construction costs and timelines.
Compared to last year, inventory levels are up, but sales volume remains subdued. Consumer behavior is shifting toward more cautious, price-sensitive buying, with many waiting for mortgage rates to drop further. While leaders in the industry are adapting with targeted regional building and digital sales tools, the sector remains in a holding pattern, cautious but steadier than at this time in 2024.