Peter and Jackie start the new year by reviewing their predictions from 2024: what did they get right, and what did they miss?

Next, they introduce their top energy themes to watch in 2025 and some predictions. Themes include changing governments and policy in the US and Canada – including the breaking news at the time of recording that Prime Minister Trudeau was resigning. They also predict the return of energy security and sovereignty as a growing conversation in 2025.

Finally, they discuss Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), published in the Gazette, Part II, at the end of 2024. The final rule aims to achieve net zero electricity in Canada by 2050 versus 2035 (the target in an earlier draft).

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Donald Trump’s January 2, 2025, X post on how tariffs create wealth for Americans
• Final Clean Electricity Regulations (December 13, 2024)
• Jordan B. Peterson Podcast interview with Pierre Poilievre (released January 2, 2025)
• The deadline to provide a “Notice of Objection” on the oil and gas cap is January 8, 2025. Email the objection to PlanPetrolieretGazier-OilandGasPlan@ec.gc.ca. See more information under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations

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This is our last podcast of 2024! We will be back in the new year with a look back at 2024 and the energy themes we will be watching in 2025.

For the last podcast of the year, we welcome Elliot Mainzer, President & Chief Executive Officer, California Independent System Operator (CAISO).

California has integrated a large share of renewables into its electricity supply. As of 2023, almost 50% of California’s power generation came from renewables. Renewable power generation includes solar (19%), hydro (15%), wind (6%), geothermal (5%), and biomass (2%).

Jackie and Peter asked Elliot: What is your expectation for future renewables growth? What is the future of natural gas generation? Is transmission able to keep up with the addition of new power supply? Do you expect changes under the Trump administration could speed up the permitting for new transmission projects? Are you concerned about the pace of demand growth and what is driving the acceleration? Is it fair to say that high renewables penetration has caused California to have expensive power prices? Alberta is making market changes to address the growth of renewables; how did California address these issues with market design in a way that continued to create a compelling investment opportunity for renewables? How much electricity does California currently receive from Alberta and British Columbia?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Statement from CanREA on concerns about punitive market and transmission changes in Alberta, including a link to a Direction Letter from Minister Nathan Neudorf (December 10, 2024)
• Opinion: Alberta needs solar and wind to meet demand by Vittoria Bellissimo and Evan Wilson, December 12, 2024
• 2023 Total System Electric Generation for California (California Energy Commission)

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This week, our guest is Arne Wohlschlegel, Managing Director at Siemens Energy Canada. Siemens Energy Canada provides a range of energy technologies, including natural gas turbines, grid equipment and digital solutions, wind turbines, and hydrogen electrolyzers.

Peter and Jackie asked Arne about the power equipment business, including how the potential new tariffs could impact the business and new manufacturing investments. They also discuss technologies for generating electricity from natural gas and efficiency rates. Other questions include: To decarbonize natural gas power generation, is it better to blend clean hydrogen into the feedstock or capture the carbon dioxide from the exhaust? What is the backlog for ordering new natural gas power plants and the waiting time for other key electrical components, such as large transformers? What digital technologies can increase the use of existing grid infrastructure? What are your expectations for offshore and onshore wind generation projects in Canada? Hydrogen development in Canada has been slower than initially expected back in 2022; why the delays, and what are your future expectations?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Siemens Energy Canada
• PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series, Pulitzer Prize winner Anne Applebaum will be in Calgary on February 6, 2025. Early Bird tickets are on sale until January 10.
• The Ezra Klien Show, podcast with Anne Applebaum “Trump Kicks Down the Guardrails”
• ‘Hype’ meets reality as Canada’s plans to export hydrogen to Germany stall (October 6, 2024)

Please review our disclaimer at:https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

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X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute

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