AI Boom Meets Inflation and Tariffs

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AI Boom Meets Inflation and Tariffs

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Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1308. Welcome back to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the exciting world of stocks and finance. I'm your host, Buckley Bonds, and it's 6 p.m. on Tuesday, July 15th, 2025, Pacific Time. The market's been a whirlwind, so let's dive right into today's action. The U.S. stock market is certainly keeping us on our toes. We've seen a mixed bag of performance recently, with major indices like the Nasdaq Composite hitting new record highs, while the S&P 500 and Dow have experienced some pullbacks. For the second quarter, the S&P 500 surged over 10 percent and the Nasdaq composite climbed nearly 18 percent, showing strong underlying momentum. However, just yesterday, the Nasdaq closed at another record, propelled by a tech rally, but the S&P 500 slipped slightly, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 400 points. Looking at specific news, the AI boom is still driving a significant portion of the tech sector's gains. Nvidia, for example, jumped 4 percent today after announcing it would resume H20 AI chip shipments to China, and it even hit a staggering 4 trillion dollar market capitalization last week. Other chip stocks like Advanced Micro Devices and Arm Holdings, and server maker Super Micro Computer, also saw rallies. On the macroeconomic front, inflation is ticking up, with the Consumer Price Index for June showing an annual rate of 2.7 percent, which is the highest since February. This has dampened hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, though a September cut still has about 60 percent odds. Employment numbers remain robust, with 147,000 jobs added in June and unemployment at 4.1 percent. However, there's a cloud of uncertainty from the Trump administration's new 30 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, set to begin August 1st, which could spur more inflation and potentially slow growth. Now, let's unpack what all this means for your portfolio. The consistent theme driving the market, especially the Nasdaq's relentless climb, is the Artificial Intelligence momentum. It's not just hype; it's tangible demand for chips, software, and infrastructure, directly benefiting companies like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Super Micro Computer. On the flip side, rising inflation at 2.7 percent, combined with the Federal Reserve's patient stance, means interest rates are likely to stay elevated for longer than some might wish, directly impacting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. Then there are the tariffs. These new 30 percent tariffs are a significant wild card. They are almost certainly going to contribute to higher prices for consumers and could put a squeeze on corporate profits, especially for companies with complex international supply chains. So, while we're seeing strong revenue beats from some companies and resilience in the tech sector, the broader market, as reflected by the Dow's recent stumble, is grappling with these macroeconomic headwinds. The S&P 500's current valuation at 22.3 times forward earnings is also above historical averages, suggesting that broad market multiple expansion might be limited from here. Given these dynamics, here are some concrete recommendations. For our growthoriented investors, those with a higher risk tolerance and an eye on innovation, you should absolutely maintain or even increase your exposure to the technology sector, particularly in AI. This trend isn't slowing down. Consider ETFs like the Invesco QQQ Trust, or QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 and is heavily weighted toward tech and growth, or the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, XLK. For individual stocks, keep Nvidia, NVDA, on your radar as a direct play on AI infrastructure. Also look at Advanced Micro Devices, AMD, Super Micro Computer, SMCI, and Palantir, PLTR, an AI analytics software maker that's almost doubled this year. Now, for our diversified or core portfolio investors, given the macroeconomic uncertainties, a balanced approach is still smart. You want broad exposure. I'd recommend core broad market ETFs like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, VTI, which gives you comprehensive exposure across the entire U.S. market, or the iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF, IVV, or Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, VOO, which track the S&P 500. For our value and defensive investors, a word of caution here. While defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Healthcare have lagged recently as money flows into riskier assets, they could offer stability if economic growth slows further or if trade tensions really escalate. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, XLV, and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, XLP, are worth watching for potential stability. Also, keep an eye on Citigroup, C, whose positive earnings report stood out in an otherwise weak financial sector. And finally, for our fixed income investors, with inflation ticking higher and the Fed likely holding rates steady for a bit, bond yields ...